US Defense Aid: Weapons We are Waiting for and Implications for the War

April 23, 2024 is a truly momentous day: at 20:00 Kyiv time, the US Senate will vote in a final decision-procedure on a legislation providing more than $60 billion worth of military air to Ukraine. Fingers crossed, we hope that the decision will be favorable to us. And then Joe Biden vowed to sign the legislation into law immediately so that to enable the long-awaited military aid package to move to Ukraine as soon as possible.

According to various forecasts, the first batch of weapons may arrive by the end of the week.

Meanwhile, the enemy is "badly annoyed” with this news. Not only is this seen from the "howling in the swamps" (Lavrov has again warned of the "risk of a nuclear confrontation"), but from various publications (the Russians are known experts in this area) in global media, even highly influential such as Bloomberg, for instance, who on April 22 released an article titled "US aid igives Kyiv respite but battlefield shift remains far off”. Simply put, Moscow is seeking in every possible way to create the impression that even if Ukraine receives weapons from America, this, in fact, is going to change nothing.

Ukrainian experts, owever, disagree altogether on this matter.

DELAYED U.S. AID AND IMPLICATIONS HOLD FOR UKRAINE

Not only did the delay in US aid drive some Ukrainians, especially civilians, into despair and apathy, it also cost our country dearly on the battlefield.

“Did the delay affect that much? Yes it did, and very much so. By blocking the aid, Trump and his supporters have done Ukraine the most damage of all, except, of course, Putin personally. They gave him such a gift that he could never hope for. According to the most optimistic Russian plans, Trump would first become president, and only then block aid for us. Trump, however, has managed to do it exactly one year earlier. And this blocking lasted for seven months. As a matter of fact, it’s Trump who is responsible for deaths of more than one thousand our soldiers, let alone the loss of Avdos," former platoon commander of the "Aidar" battalion, soldier Yevhen Dykiy, comments to Ukrinform.

“Our retreats from front lines due to a lack of ammunition and other weapons was very painful for us”.

It would not be an exaggeration to say that Trump's blocking of aid to Ukraine came for the Russians as the greatest war success, having allowed them to hold the defensive "Surovikin line" in the Zaporizhzhia region while under heavy pressure of Ukrainian troops in the summer of 2023," the man said.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military observer at the "Information Resistance" Group, says there was an acute shortage of ammunition on the front lines was due to the lack of aid from the US. And the lack of anti-aircraft defenses, not only for long range engagements, but also for saturating air defense units with short range defenses, as a matter of fact, ceased to lethally threaten Russian tactical front-line aviation involved in dropping aerial guided bombs on Ukrainian positions.

"Sadly, this all led to Ukrainian forces having to retreat from their lines in some areas, especially near the town of Avdiivka. The same goes for the town as such, which we lost," the military observer noted.

Oleksandr Musienko, head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies, also mentioned Avdiivka. According to the analyst, had it not been for the delay in aid delivery, Ukraine would definitely be able to halt Russian offensive.

"There would be no talk (like is the case now) about  Russia preparing to intensify offensive operations on other axes. The Russian Federation would instead choose to regroup and replenish its units with fresh reserves, because they would need time for this," the expert said.

If it weren't for the delay, we would have been able to forecast and plan our campaign for the second half of 2024: "And, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would, perhaps, even have the ability and opportunity to conduct some counteroffensive actions, albeit of a local nature."

But beyond that, even under the current scenario, there are circumstances that can come favorable to us.

"Do you see what has happened? Conditions have changed. Russia was preparing to intensify its offensive, being 100% confident that Congress would not support aid to Ukraine, and Europe, as long as American aid was remaining on hold, would not have the time to get involved in the process immediately. Well, Russia has miscalculated, its calculations have failed. And now they are faced with a difficult dilemma, says Mr. Musienko. They cannot cancel the offensive, on the one hand, because Putin is obsessed with the war he is waging against Ukraine, with eliminating Ukrainian statehood, and with his neo-imperial ambitions. Putin wants a result no matter what."

One even gets an impression that Russia is deliberately dragging itself into a trap.

MR Musienko says in support of this deliberation: "The Russians will advance without having received any significant reinforcements, and this would add much to our chances of success in repelling this offensive”.

These words are encouraging, and especially so when seen against the views of the authors of the Bloomberg article. But what can be said about it objectively?

U.S. AID OPENS OPPORTUNITIES FOR A UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE

We questioned the experts about why such an article suddenly emerged, how the US aid will affect the war, and about the chances of the Ukrainian Armed Forces potentially switching from “active defense” to counteroffensive mode?

Oleksandr Kovalenko was the first to point to the fact that it’s not for the first time that similar publications appear: "What was published by Bloomberg is definitely part of a campaign paid for by the Kremlin."

The expert argues that the aid from the USA will not give Ukraine’s military kind of a "breathing space”, but full opportunity to stabilize the defense line, for one thing.

"Yes, indeed, in the last six months we were losing positions and locations due to delay in U.S. aid. But the line of defense, however, had remained in place, and the front hadn’t been broken through, as some "experts" predicted. Although it was really difficult, the Armed Forces were able to hold back Russian assault".

Here the question arises: what will happen when we start getting everything we need - ammunition, equipment, considering that we had managed to withstand with the assault wave --  at great cost and with a shortage of weapons?

"One doesn't need to be a genius to answer this question. This will allow us to seriously increase efficiency of our actions, both defensive and offensive. At the initial stage, the present defense line will be stabilized, Mr. Kovalenko predicts. At the second, reserves for counter-offensive or counter-attack operations will be established. I won't say exactly where or on which axis we will act, because it is well known what happened in 2023, when there had been much talk of the location of our the then future counteroffensive operation. It will take place where it should be. When it starts, everyone will see it, and some will feel it on their own skin."

Oleksandr Musienko is not at all surprised at the appearance of publications like this: "It’s clear who’s behind it", he says.  What is the percentage of truth in such messages? I think that “active defense” will continue to be maintained on all axes of the front, especially in the hottest areas of the battlefield where the enemy is currently trying to advance most aggressively."

This is especially about Chasiv Yar, Vuhledar, and the Avdiivka front. Ukrinform wrote about these hot areas in one of its recent reviews.

Kharkiv Oblast is another potentially dangerous area of the battle, which the Russians can try to attack not only from the side of Kupyansk, but also from its Belgorod Oblast.

"This, however, is not about taking a million-people city, but, rather, about the fact that the enemy will try to bypass Kharkiv and take it in a half circle in order to cut off the logistical routes for our troops. Ukrainian forces are preparing for this. For this reason, I repeat it, active defense operations will continue," Mr. Musienko went on to note.

But it won’t be long before our capabilities begin to grow and  the uninterrupted supply of American weapons renews...

"I do not rule out that at some area of the battlefield Ukraine’s Armed Forces will win an opportunity to conduct successful local counterattacks. Our command staff will certainly not idly sit on the defensive, but will make appropriate decisions as events unfold. Conditions began to change, and definitely not for the enemy’s benefit. After April 20, the prospects for the Russians are no longer as optimistic as they might have thought before... One of our allies, Great Britain has announced the largest foreign military aid package in history of Ukraine (for more details, see the link). Hence all this uproar, hence these  publications in the Western mass media", - believes the head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies.

Evhen Dykiy is even more optimistic about American aid: "With this aid at hand, we can hope for more than just a local counteroffensive, for far more serious offensive actions and for inflicting a heavy defeat to the enemy. I would hesitate to talk about the defeat of the Russian group of forces, at least this year, but with that large amount of aid provided, we could at least turn the tide of war in our favor as early as this year, and ensure that the war goes on in the same direction as in late 2022- early 2023, that is, toward our unavoidable victory."

But there is one "but"… "America will provide us with weapons, but weapons cannot fight by themselves," Mr. Dykiy says. In various areas of the battlefieled the enemy outnumbers our forces 1:10 or 1:7. This imbalance can be fixed through mobilization”.

The expert reminds that at the beginning of the large-scale invasion, we had enough people, but not enough other resources.

"Now, as in mathematics, there is a concept of a necessary condition and a sufficient condition. So, the presence of these American weapons, first of all ammunition, is a necessary condition for our victory. But it is not sufficient if people are in short supply. Our defenders are becoming fewer and fewer: some of them "are dropping out", others have got tired physically and mentally. Meanwhile, a powerful Russian information campaign against mobilization continues to gain momentum in regions in the rear of Ukraine. Violent attacks on draft officials in Uzhhrod and an attack involving attempted weapon take away in Chernivtsi are incidents that occurred just in a last few days. It's not enough to just to wait for weapons aid from allies, we have to do our own "homework" regarding mobilization reserve," Yevhen Dykiy emphasizes.

WHAT EXACTLY WE ARE WAITING FOR FROM THE USA

The day before the Ukraine aid package was put to Senate vote, Politico had released an article headlined "Next Ukraine package to be larger than normal”.

The article says the new package would include armored vehicles (additional Bradley Fighting Vehicles would be part of the shipment, according to a US official). Older Humvees and M113 armored personnel carriers, as well as missiles, artillery guns, and air defense systems are also expected to be in the package. The article, however, doesn’t say whether long-range ATACMS missiles will be in this package, but missiles will definitely be there, Politico reported, citing US officials with knowledge of the discussions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced after a conversation with Joe Biden on April 22, that "Uncertainty over the agreements on ATACMS for Ukraine has been fixed.”

Meanwhile, we asked the experts about what specific weapons we hope to receive from the USA.

"In the near future, there will be need for artillery shells in 155mm and 105 mm calibers, as well as Patriot and NASAMS air defense missiles. This is what can be delivered as soon as possible," Oleksandr Musienko believes.

Next are ATACMS long-range missiles.

"We really need them in order to destroy the Kerch Bridge, to strike deep into the Russian rear. Availability of both the missiles and artillery rounds are our prime necessity, "says the expert.

In addition, Ukraine’s Armed Forces are in desperate need of high-explosive and cluster munitions: "Where the Russians attack more with manpower, we need cluster rounds, and where their artillery works best, fragmentation and high-explosive fragmentation munitions will work."

It would be good to get attack helicopters such as Apache from the US.

"As far as I know, Kyiv has sent a relevant request regarding Apache. Our army strike aviation would augment its capabilities greatly with these helicopters ", Mr. Musienko believes.

And this is how Yevhen Dykiy views the matter: "One of our vital needs is not just artillery guns, which we have in more or less sufficient amounts, but rather the rounds to fire from them. Each gun currently has only two rounds to fire every day, and this is because we don’t have them in sufficient supply. I therefore would put artillery shells in the first place, and believe that the ammunition will come in large amounts and very soon."

Air defenses are second in terms of importance. Here there is a shortage of literally everything.

"We are talking about both the additional number of missiles and the launchers. The Europeans may have some excessive number of Patriot air defense systems that they could provide for us, but they don’t have enough missiles for these air defense systems. But there are enough of them in the USA, who has finally woken up," says Mr. Dykiy.

Oleksandr Kovalenko agrees that missiles are among the weapons the Ukrainian military needs most now. But they need missiles not only for Patriots and NASAMS, for M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS (we are talking about ATACMS), but also for the F-16.

"There is a wide range of weapons for use on the American fighter planes; there are dozens of them for hitting targets in the air, on the ground and at sea".

What Ukraine seeks to obtain:

• air-to-air missiles AIM-120 AMRAAM with ranges of up to 100 km or longer depending on the modification. Not only will this enable effectively countering Russian aircraft such as, for example, Su-34 front-line bombers that are capable of launching glide bombs dozens of kilometers from the frontline, but will also provide our forces with air defense support in intercepting cruise missiles and Shahed-136 kamikaze drones with AIM-9 missiles and more;

• Aerial guided bombs AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapon capable of ranges of 100 to 500 km, depending on modification, as well as AGM-158 JASSM cruise missiles, which have characteristics very similar to Storm Shadow and Scalp EG (which all are air-to-ground attack weapons);

• anti-ship missile AGM-119 that can engage surface targets at distances of 55 km or longer. Developed jointly with the Swedish, the missiles are in abundance in stock in Sweden.

 Shortage of glide bomb weapons remains high on the agenda too.

"The Americans have such bombs in storage, they supplied them to us already, but not in sufficient amounts. We need more of them. After all, the Russians have much more of these weapons and their delivery systems than we do," Mr. Kovalenko points out.

“Speaking generally, almost everything is relevant for us”.

"The approved package of 60 billion is bigger than what had been provided to us in 2022 and 2023. A significant part of the range of the weapons provided will be openly published, as before, but there will also be a classified part, which will not become known until after they are effectively used against the Russians, said the analyst at the Information Resistance Group.

Myroslav Liskovych. Kyiv