First time in days, no Russian advance near Avdiivka while pressure up near Chasiv Yar - ISW

That’s according to a report by a U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, Ukrinform saw.

Military analysts note that for the first time in several days, on April 30, Russian troops executed no confirmed offensives in the Avdiivka area, while Ukrainian sources reported that the Russians performed more assaults toward the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar axis than near Avdiivka. In the reports from the Ukrainian General Staff on April 30, it is stated that, in total, during the day, Ukrainian troops repelled 47 Russian attacks in the Avdiivka direction and 57 in the Bakhmut direction, while significantly more assaults were repoted in the Chasiv Yar direction. "One day’s worth of reporting is not sufficient to establish a pattern, but it may suggest that Russian forces are somewhat slowing down the rate of attacks around Avdiivka while re-committing to offensive pushes around Chasiv Yar, as ISW recently forecasted they would," the report said.

It is noted that since around April 20, Russian forces have focused on developing tactical successes near Ocheretyne (northwest of Avdiivka) and Novokalynove (north of Avdiivka), but as of April 30, the pace of confirmed advances appears to have slowed.

Analysts believe that Russian forces may decide to advance from north of Avdivka toward Toretsk to supplement Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, which would likely require Russian forces to conduct a tactical pause to mass up forces for such an offensive.

ISW has recently assessed that Russian forces may decide to advance north of Ocheretyne along the H-20 highway (Donetsk - Kostyantynivka) to pressure Ukrainian forces defending in the Toretsk area and possibly threaten the operational rear of Ukrainian defenses in and west of Chasiv Yar.

"Chasiv Yar is an operationally significant objective as it would provide Russian forces with a staging ground to launch offensive operations against Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka, which form the fortress belt of four major cities in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces would likely require a longer pause to reinforce existing units and redeploy additional forces to the Ocheretyne area should they choose to attempt to advance northward to the Toretsk area, however," the report said.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, deputy head operational department at the Estonian Defense Forces’ General Staff, Toomas Viali, is convinced that Russia will fail to achieve its  goal of capturing the town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region by May 9.