Russia forming offensive grouping toward Kharkiv but capturing city seen impossible - ISW

This is stated by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, reports Ukrinform.

Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets noted that in Russia’s Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk regions, the invasion forces have amassed nearly 50,000 personnel as part of the Northern Grouping.

The Russian military is also reportedly preparing and forming the Northern Grouping of Forces from elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) to primarily operate in the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction.

Mashovets notes that the Russian forces transferred manpower and equipment of the Russian 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment (72nd Motorized Rifle Division, 44th AC, LMD) and the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade to the Northern Grouping of Forces as of May 3. Russia’s command is pretending to unload troops and equipment redeploying to the Northern Grouping of Forces at railway stations in isolated areas of Kursk region, only to then have Russian forces march to their deployment points in Belgorod region.

Mashovets noted that the units of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment were initially redeployed to the Kursk railway station, and then moved further to Belgorod region in order to, presumably, go to staging areas near Kharkiv region.

In addition, the analyst recalled that Russian troops recently intensified air, drone, and missile strikes on the northeastern areas of Ukraine, such as Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions.

Mashovets echoed ISW's previous assessment that Russia's Northern Grouping of Forces was unlikely to be able to conduct a successful offensive operation to capture Kharkiv, and suggested that elements of the Russian 11th AC, 44th AC, and 6th AC (all LMD) may in the future try to execute limited offensive actions or cross-border raids into Kharkiv and Sumy regions.

"Ukrainian officials have increasingly warned about the threat of a possible future Russian offensive operation to seize Kharkiv City. ISW continues to assess that the Russian military lacks the forces necessary to seize the city but that Russian offensive operations against Kharkiv or Sumy cities would draw and fix Ukrainian forces from other, more critical parts of the frontline," the ISW report says.

As for the Ukrainian offensive, U.S. officials continue to signal their support for new Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in 2025, although ISW continues to believe that Ukraine should seize the offensive initiative as soon as possible. If Russia succeeds in retaining the initiative throughout 2024, it will provide the Kremlin with a number of advantages.

"Ukraine’s ability to liberate its territory and conduct counteroffensive operations rests on a number of unmade decisions in the West, Russia, and Ukraine and any external efforts to impose a timeline on Ukrainian counteroffensive operations ignore the reality of the battlefield situation," the report notes.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Pavlyuk said that the Russian forces have a plan to capture Kharkiv and Sumy, but noted that it remains unclear how serious the plan is and whether the enemy will succeed in seizing both cities.