Russia prematurely launched offensive operations in Kharkiv region - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said this in its latest report, according to Ukrinform.

“The likely premature start of Russian offensive operations appears to have undermined Russian success in northern Kharkiv Oblast,” the report says.

According to ISW, Russian forces reportedly had roughly 35,000 personnel in the international border area as a part of the Northern Grouping of Forces when they started offensive operations on May 10, whereas Ukrainian sources had been indicating that the Russian military intends to concentrate a total of 50,000 to 70,000 personnel in the international border area.

“Russian forces likely launched the offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast earlier than intended with an understrength force hoping to establish a foothold before the arrival of resumed US military aid to the front made that task more difficult,” the report says.

According to ISW, the Russian military command may be waiting to intensify offensive operations and pursue a second phase of the operation because its plans require a grouping of 50,000 to 70,000 personnel strong.

Experts believe that Russian forces currently aim to establish a "buffer zone" in northern Kharkiv region and advance to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City,.

At the same, the Northern Grouping of Forces, even at the upper limit of its reported end strength, will lack the necessary manpower needed to conduct a successful operation to envelop, encircle, or seize Kharkiv City, the ISW reported.

According to experts, Russian forces reportedly managed to surprise Ukrainian forces on May 10 and made tactically significant gains in areas that Ukrainian officials reported were less defended.

According to experts, the decreasing tempo is likely “presenting Ukrainian forces with tactical opportunities to counterattack, although Ukrainian forces are not yet conducting a limited counteroffensive operation that aims to push Russian forces completely out of northern Kharkiv Oblast.”

As reported, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, Andriy Yusov, said that Russia did not achieve what it had planned in the Kharkiv region.