Putin demanding that Ukraine effectively surrender in advance of any ceasefire - ISW
This is said in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), according to Ukrinform.
“Putin's rejection of any ceasefire agreement short of Ukrainian capitulation further illustrates that he is confident in his assessment that Russia can pursue victory by continuing creeping advances in Ukraine, outlasting Western support for Ukraine, and winning a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces,” the report says.
ISW analyses statements by the Russian president at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit on July 4.
In particular, Putin “rejected Russian participation in any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement. Instead, he demanded Ukraine's "irreversible" "demilitarization" as a precondition for any ceasefire agreement. “Putin is thus demanding that Ukraine effectively surrender in advance of any ceasefire,” the report says.
ISW pointed out that “instead of offering his typical feigned interest in such negotiations he [Putin] outright rejected any ceasefire negotiation process”.
According to experts, Putin has repeatedly portrayed the West as his envisioned negotiating partner in a ceasefire agreement in order to prompt Western concessions on Ukrainian sovereignty, but Putin notably dismissed all intermediary parties as possible mediators for an agreement between Ukraine and Russia.
Additionally, according to the report, Putin also dismissed the Verkhovna Rada as a possible point of contact for negotiations despite previously claiming that the body was the only legitimate Ukrainian entity that Russia could negotiate with.
“Putin has now labeled all Ukrainian governing institutions illegitimate or unsuitable for negotiations and has dismissed the idea of third parties participating in negotiations — de facto rejecting any realistic process for meaningfully negotiating a ceasefire agreement,” the report says.
He instead highlighted his demand for Ukraine's "demilitarization" as a primary prerequisite for any ceasefire agreement, demanding that Ukraine agree to "demilitarization" measures that would be irreversible, the report says.
Putin argued that “Russia cannot allow the Ukrainian military to take advantage of a ceasefire to reconstitute its forces”.
As noted, ISW continues to assess that Russia would use “the respite of a ceasefire to reconstitute and expand its forces and to further mobilize its defense industrial base (DIB) for future aggression aiming to destroy the Ukrainian state”.
As reported, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that to change the situation in the war, Ukraine needs permission to strike at Russian territory and more supplies of artillery and ammunition.
