Breakthrough in Kursk region allows Ukraine to seize battlefield initiative in one area - ISW

As reported by Ukrinform, this is stated by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank.

As analysts note, Russia has retained the initiative on the front since November 2023, determining the location, time, scale, and requirements of fighting in Ukraine and forced Ukraine to expend materiel and manpower in reactive defensive operations. However, the Ukrainian operation in Kursk region forced the Kremlin and the Russian military command to react and redeploy forces and assets to the sector where Ukrainian troops have launched attacks. Russian forces, however, were notably not conducting active operations in Kursk region, ISW notes.

"Russia has been leveraging its possession of the theater-wide initiative to pressure Ukraine and attempt to prevent Ukrainian forces from accumulating manpower and materiel for future counteroffensive operations while determining a tempo of fighting that would allow Russian forces to sustain consistent ongoing offensive operations," the report said.

As ISW notes, Putin and the Russian military command likely incorrectly assessed that Ukraine lacked the capability to contest the initiative, and Ukraine's ability to achieve operational surprise and contest the theater-wide initiative is challenging the operational and strategic assumptions underpinning current Russian offensive efforts in Ukraine.

In general, the Ukrainian raid in Kursk region and the likelihood of other such cross-border incursions force the Kremlin to decide whether to consider the border with northeastern Ukraine as an active front that needs to be defended rather than as an inactive part of the front, as they have treated it since the fall of 2022.

"The current Ukrainian incursion, however, poses significant threats to Russian military operations in Ukraine and Putin's regime stability and demands a response. The Ukrainian operation in Kursk Oblast will likely expand the Kremlin's consideration for what type of Ukrainian operations are possible along the border. Russia's prolonged treatment of the international border area as a dormant frontline is a strategic failure of imagination," the think tank believes.

Analysts add that Russia has spent significant resources on building up fortifications along the international border, but failed to allocate human resources and equipment for properly manning and defending these fortifications.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, on August 6, Russian Telegram channels reported ongoing fighting near the border in Kursk region, adding that the Ukrainian military had allegedly crossed in.

The Ukrainian military has issued no official statements on this matter.

The U.S. administration said they are in contact with the Ukrainian side regarding the developments in Kursk region in order to understand the goals and strategy of the operation.

China reacted to the situation in Kursk region, calling on all parties to de-escalate.

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