Russia will use conventional tactics of brute force in Kursk region - Dutch expert

Dick Zande, a defence expert at the Netherlands Institute of International Affairs Clingendael in The Hague, said this in a comment to an Ukrinform correspondent in The Hague.

"We can expect Russia to move the necessary forces to the area to launch a counter-offensive and push the Ukrainian Armed Forces back to Ukraine across the international border. This may take some time, as the Russian army will have to pull units from different areas because it cannot move a significant number of forces from Donbas, as this would weaken Russian positions on the front line. The Ukrainian Armed Forces can ‘wait and see’ for a while, but once the Russian army is ready to launch a counter-offensive, they will face a choice: defend or retreat. Defence could lead to serious losses in manpower and equipment if Russia uses conventional brute force tactics with massive use of artillery, missiles, etc. Another option would be a phased tactical withdrawal. But this decision may take several weeks to be made, as Russia will most likely need a lot of time to build up counter-offensive forces," he said.

Asked about possible targets, Zande said: "There have been rumours that the goal is to capture the Russian nuclear power plant near Kursk, which would give Kyiv a bargaining chip to withdraw Russian troops from the Zaporizhzhia NPP. However, this would require the Ukrainian Armed Forces to continue their offensive deeper into Russian territory, which entails risks as more forces would be needed and logistical supply lines would become longer. In addition, the occupation of the nuclear power plant and its defence against a Russian attack... would require significant defence forces."

According to him, "the occupied zone could become a bargaining chip in the event of ceasefire or peace talks if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election. But this seems unlikely, as the size of this territory - approximately 1,000 square kilometres - is, according to President Zelensky, extremely small compared to the occupied part of Ukraine. In addition, the Ukrainian Armed Forces would then be forced to defend the area ‘at any cost’, which could harm Ukrainian defences elsewhere," the expert said.

As reported by Ukrinform, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi confirmed on 12 August that the Defence Forces were conducting an offensive operation in the Kursk region.

As of now, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have taken control of more than 1,000 square kilometres of Kursk region with dozens of settlements.

On 15 August, President Volodymyr Zelensky chaired a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Staff, at which it was announced that a military commandant's office would be established in the controlled territories of Kursk region. Major General Eduard Moskalev was appointed its head.

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhiy Tykhyi stressed that the purpose of the operation in Kursk region is not to seize foreign territories, but to save lives and protect the territory of Ukraine from Russian attacks.

US President Joe Biden said that Ukraine's unexpected offensive in Russia's Kursk region ‘created a real dilemma’ for Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, adding that Washington is in constant contact with Kyiv.