Ukraine Latest: Weekly Digest for October 14-20, 2024
MAIN EVENTS OF THE WEEK
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented Ukraine’s Victory Plan to members of the Ukrainian Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, on Wednesday, October 16. He described the first step as an immediate and unconditional invitation to join NATO and the last as an offer to replace U.S. troops in Europe with Ukrainian units after the war. The second point in the plan is a permanent strengthening of Ukraine’s security through guarantees from partners that their weapons can be used for strikes inside Russia and that Ukraine’s neighbors will conduct joint air defense operations to protect Ukraine’s skies. It will also allow for continued operations inside sovereign Russian territory to ensure buffer zones that protect Ukraine. The third is a nonnuclear deterrence plan, and the fourth guarantees economic security and protection of Ukrainian natural resources that will strengthen Ukraine’s partners and weaken Russia’s economy and “war machine.” The Plan was unanimously voted for by Parliament’s faction leaders and MPs.
COMMENT: Oleg Saakyan, policy analyst: "Regarding the point about an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO, it was more expected than not. Ukraine seeks to avail itself of the opportunity that has arisen in the context of the transition of power in the USA, as well as the end of President Biden's political career, to set this issue in motion and win an invitation to join the Alliance... An invitation [for Ukraine to join] NATO will demonstrate that the security guarantees the partners promise to Ukraine are not just political rhetoric, but concrete steps, a firm commitment to support Ukraine."
President Volodymyr Zelensky:
In an interview with the Financial Times, he said:
- a formal invitation to join Nato is “the only way” Ukraine can survive Russia’s invasion;
-- Western officials shy away from open talk about an arrangement where Kyiv trades Russian-occupied territory for Nato membership;
-- the outcome of the US presidential election next month is critical for Ukraine’s future; continued support depends on who wins the race for the White House.
In an interview with Ukrainian TV channels, he said:
-- the US White House team will soon visit Ukraine to provide feedback on the Victory Plan;
-- They in Europe admit the West’s sanctions on the Russian Federation are insufficient;
-- Ukraine’s survival can only be ensured by joining NATO or giving Kyiv nuclear weapons, and we want NATO;
-- Progress of war in Ukraine will depend on the US policy after the upcoming presidential election;
-- Germany remains skeptical about Ukraine joining NATO; the U.S. position became more favorable;
-- A draft plan for future talks with Russia will be finalized in November.
October 16: Biden Administration announced additional security assistance for Ukraine. This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package, which has an estimated value of $425 million, will provide Ukraine additional capabilities to meet its most urgent needs, including: air defense capabilities; air-to-ground weapons; munitions for rocket systems and artillery; armored vehicles; and anti-tank weapons.
The next Ukraine Defense Contact Group (otherwise known as Ramstein-format)meeting at the leaders' level will take place in November in a video conference format, where the leaders will coordinate with international partners on additional assistance for Ukraine.
COMMENT: Oleksiy Buryachenko, policy analyst: "The Biden Administration has most likely decided not to give a "false start" at Ramstein to details of historical support for Ukraine in the way it was announced. Why? Because they don't know what will be discussed at the BRICS summit forthcoming in late October in Kazan."
October 17: The EU Parliament endorsed a loan of up to €35 billion to Ukraine as the EU's contribution to the G7's support initiative. This is the EU’s contribution under the G7's initiative to support Ukraine with up to $50 billion (approximately €45 billion) to address Ukraine’s urgent financing needs in the face of Russia’s brutal war of aggression. The repayment of this loan and of the loans from other G7 countries will come from the extraordinary revenues made from immobilized Russian Central Bank assets.
October 18: The board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $1.1 billion payout to be used to provide budget support to Ukraine. The loan disbursal is the latest tranche of funding the IMF has released to Ukraine as part of an ongoing four-year, $15.5 billion program approved in March 2023.
The United States has reportedly relaxed its opposition to inviting Ukraine to join NATO, a shift that could also sway Germany’s position, according to the French newspaper Le Monde. An unnamed European diplomat suggests that if Kamala Harris wins the upcoming US presidential election, President Biden might push for Ukraine’s NATO invitation during the transition period, but Trump’s victory could derail such efforts.
The Republic of Estonia Parliament, the Riigikogu, adopted a Statement recognizing the deportation of the Crimean Tatar people from the Crimea pPninsula by the Soviet totalitarian regime in 1944 as an act of genocide.
The initial batch of self-explosive drones donated by France are scheduled for delivery within the next few weeks.
THE WAR AS IT IS
October 14/ Interview. Victory Commanders. Smerechansky: Smereka on the role played by warfighters, fighter sorties and enemy pilots
October 15/ A nation of the Invincible. Interview. Oleh Skrypka on war’s impact on culture and why it is difficult to eradicate Russianness
October 16/ Station Kramatorsk. Interview. Hrim at Kramatorsk Station. Tactical medicine and combat training
October 14/ Ceremonial handover of a mine action vehicle purchased with the proceeds from "Pes Patron" brand sales
October 15/ Final farewell and funeral ceremony for fallen soldier Mykola Suyazov took place in the city of Uzhhorod
October 19/ The aftermath of an overnight Russian missile raid on Odesa
UKRAINIAN BATTLEFIELDS
Armed Forces Supreme Commander Volodymyr Zelensky:
October 14: hosted a meeting at the Supreme Commander’s Headquarters addressing, among other issues, the situation on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove fronts, Russian counteroffensive on Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region
October 15: chaired the Supreme Commander’s Headquarters meeting addressing energy infrastructure protection issues and preparations for the upcoming cold season
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Ukrainian attacks on the Russian Federation and Russian occupied areas in Ukraine:
October 19: The Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR MoD) reported it had destroyed a Tu-134 transport aircraft used by the Russian Armed Forces’ 117th Military Transport Aviation Regiment. The plane was located at the Orenburg-2 a military airfield in the Orenburg region, which lies around 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from the border with Ukraine.
October 20: Ukraine struck a military air base deep inside Russia thought to house several types of Russian jets. Ukraine struck "the infrastructure of the Lipetsk-2 military airfield," which is home to Russian Su-34, Su-35 and MiG-31 fighter jets, the General Staff reported on Sunday. Warehouses storing ammunition, fuel and aviation equipment were targeted in the attack.The attack also targeted Su-34 and Su-35 fighter jets and aviation fuel storage sites at the airfield. The extent of the damage is being verified.
October 20: the Defense Forces struck the Sverdlov explosives, chemical and ammunition plant in the Russian city of Dzerzhinsk overnight, close to the regional capital in the Nizhny Novgorod region. The Sverdlov plant is located around 900 kilometers (approx. 560 miles) from the Ukrainian border. The Sverdlov plant, ranked as Russia’s No.1 explosives factory, also produces chemical substances for large-caliber munitions and high-explosive bombs. It was reported to store precision glide bombs at the time of the attack
October 19: The Kremniy El microelectronics factory located in the Russian city of Bryansk caught fire in the aftermath of an overnight attack by Ukrainian lauched drones. This factory is one of the largest producers and suppliers of microelectronics in Russia, serving as a key supplier to the Russian Ministry of Defense. One of the primary products relying on Kremniy’s microelectronic components is Russia’s tactical and strategic missiles, such as the Iskander and Kalibr systems. Precise sensors and chips made at Kremniy are used for navigation and flight control, enabling these missiles and other guided munitions to hit their targets with high accuracy. Additionally, components from the factory are essential for the functioning of missile defense systems like the S-400, S-500, and Pantsir. The plant is located over 100 kilometers (about 62 miles) north of the border with Ukraine's northern Sumy Oblast. It was attacked at least once before, in August 2023.
October 19: Residents reported blasts in the Russian city of St. Petersburg, which left nearly 300 buildings without electricity in the Primorsky and Vyborgsky districts, presumably in the aftermath of an attack with drones, which were spotted flying over the city.
October 18: A hacker team affiliated with HUR MoD deployed a cyberattack targeting Russia's satellite communications. As a result, the enemy had problems monitoring maritime traffic. The cyber strike targeted the IT infrastructure of the national mobile satellite communication operator Morsviazsputnik. Russia's state maritime traffic control system was also hit. In another attack, the transport and logistics company Fesco, as well as the enterprises Rosmorport and Rosmorrechport were targeted, resulting in systemic failures, disrupted access to the websites and electronic resources of the targeted entities, and a lack of stability was reported in the operation of satellite communications used for monitoring and controlling maritime traffic.
WEAPONS & HOSTILITIES
October 18: HUR MoD’s special forces, in a coordinated effort with the Armed Forces units, liberated and mopped up the village of Kruhlyakivka in the Kharkiv region and its surroundings from the invading Russian forces. The operation to regain control over the town of Kupyansk, an important defense stronghold, lasted from October 7 till 14.
October 15: The Ukrainian Army Commander Oleksandr Pavlyuk initiated an official investigation into the incident that occurred in the Asgard unit. On October 13, the unit released a video showing Oleksandr Dmitriev, who presents himself as an adviser to Pavlyuk, bulling and humiliating members of a military unit, threatening to "break them over the knee."
The duration of basic military training course at four Armed Forces’ training centers has been extended from 30 days to 45 days. Over 100,000 service members of Ukraine’s Defense Forces have undergone training on the territory of partner countries over the time of the all-out Russian invasion.
October 16: The MoD gave approval to deployment of the locally-made, multi-role Chaklun (Magician) UAV system to Ukraine’s Armed Forces. A fixed-wing drone, the Chaklun is designed to operate in all-weather conditions.
October 18: Ukraine's defense intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said that around 11,000 troops from North Korea are undergoing training in eastern Russia before being sent to Ukrainian battlefields in early November.
October 14: Successful defensive actions by the National Guard’s 15th Kara-Dag Brigade have stalled Russian offensive advances towards Selydove, a settlement in the Ukrainian controlled part of the Donetsk region.
October 18: Russian Armed Forces Major Dmitriy Pervukha was killed in the center of Russian-occupied Luhansk city after his car exploded, HUR MoD reported via Telegram: "On Oct. 18, 2024, at about 11:40 a.m., a UAZ Patriot car with Pervukha inside exploded on one of the streets in Luhansk”. Pervukha served in the 273rd Intelligence Center of the Russian Armed Forces General Staff (military base 53847), located in Russia's Novosibirsk. In Russian occupied Ukraine, Pervukha held the position of the so-called “chief of staff for military service and security of military service,” according to HUR.
October 18: Russia's military destroyed a strategic bridge over the Konka river in Ukraine's southern Kherson region in an effort to prevent a potential Ukrainian offensive, according to reports by a Ukrainian partisan movement in the region. The Kyiv-aligned Atesh resistance movement (atesh means "fire" in Crimean Tartar) has been operating in the Kherson region since Russia's February 2022 invasion. It gathers and reports information on local Russian military operations for Ukrainian intelligence. On Saturday, the group reported that "an agent with the 61st Marine Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces reports that this may be due to a possible offensive by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the Kherson sector." In a social media post, Atesh reiterated this idea, saying Russian forces blew up the bridge because they were "anticipating a UAF offensive." However, it also noted that there could be other reasons for the destruction of the bridge.
October 20: The 95th Independent Polissia Assault Brigade affiliated with the Ukrainian Assault Troops wiped out a squad of Russian marines in the Kursk region.
October 20: On the Kupiansk front, National Guard forces brought to a halt a Russian offensive aimed to capture a bridge over the Oskil River and cut off part of the Ukrainian bridgehead on the river’s eastern bank.
October 20: Members of the partisan movement Atesh destroyed a relay box near the village of Novooleksiivka in the Kherson region, disrupting the logistics of the Russian invaders.
Russian invaders have seized control over the eastern and south-eastern parts of Toretsk town, assaulting by small infantry groups covered up by artillery and mortar fire, and FPV-drones, but not using armored vehicles so far. The Russians are destructing Toretsk to ruins, the situation is tough for defending Ukrainian forces. As of October 17, Russia had concentrated a significant force in Toretsk and the surroundings.
October 17: Ukrainian assault troops fended off a massive Russian offensive targeting Kurakhove and the surroundings, having destroyed 33 of the armored vehicles the Russians used in the offensive.
October 15: On the Kharkiv front, the operational situation remains challenging for Ukrainian defenders; two force-to-force engagements occurred the previous day near the settlement of Tykhe, in which the adversary lost 95 troops, 44 of them dead.
October 18: On the Southern front, the adversary intensified its aerial reconnaissance operations, was concentrating large forces and trying to push ahead, presumably in an attempt to seize control over the Dnipro River islands in the Kherson region.
October 15: On the Kharkiv front, the adversary unsuccessfully attempted to assault on defensive Ukrainian positions, trying to push ahead by small groups. The National Guard’s Spartan Brigade destroyed the occupiers' equipment and a platoon-size infantry force, and took several invaders into captivity.
October 16: In the Zaporizhzhia region, the Russian invading forces were assaulting towards the villages of Levadne and Novodariivka, with fierce fighting continuing into October 16. It is hard at this point to accurately assess the adversary’s tactical gains nor Ukraine’s losses as long as the situation is changing dynamically.
COMMENT: Oleksandr Kovalenko, lead analyst at the Information Resistance group: "On the Zaporizhzhia front, the adversary has intensified its operations to some extent, but a large-scale offensive is out of the question. The length of the Zaporizhzhia frontline extends to 100 kilometers, which the Russians have no resources to embrace. Therefore, the maximum they can do is to focus on one certain stretch of the frontline. For example, they can try and seize control over Orikhiv (by cutting off the Robotyne ledge), or it can be Hulyaipole as well."
The battlefield video analysis platform Vezha (‘tower’), which transmits real-time broadcasts from drones and ensures effective defeat of the enemy, has been integrated into Ukraine’s DELTA situational awareness and battlespace management system.
October 16: The Defense Forces discovered and hit a site where Russian forces underwent training in southern Ukraine. Around two dozen Russian personnel were at the site at the time of the attack.
October 16: The Russian military increased their presence on the Kinburn Spit, Mykolayiv oblast, presumably attempting to set up a bridgehead from where to shell Ochakiv and the surrounding coast areas, but offensive or over water operations would be highly problematic to carry out from there.
October 16: In northern Kharkiv region, HUR MoD forces mopped up forest areas on some 400 hectares, taking out nearly a regiment-size number of Russian invaders.
October 17: The Russians attempted to push forward to Vyshneve community on the western outskirt of the town of Selydove, Donetsk oblast. The invaders throw infantry and armored vehicles into the battle, seeking to expand the area under their fire control and to disrupt logistics for Ukrainian forces.
October 17: Almost two dozen Russian soldiers were captured by the 112th Azov Special Operations Brigade while attempting to assault and counterattack on the surroundings of the settlement of New York, Donetsk oblast.
October 17: The invading Russian forces tried to breach through Ukrainian defenses on the approaches to Chasiv Yar community. The Ukrainian defenders managed to hold their ground. The Ukrainian tactics there is focused to cut the enemy's logistics routes and leave them without the possibility of reinforcement or augmentation.
Graphics
THE WEEK IN NUMBERS AND PICTURES
Russian air attacks on the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv killed 16 people and injured 68 others over the week under review.
Ukraine has returned 95 soldiers from Russian captivity, 20 of whom were sentenced to life imprisonment in the Russian Federation for defending their own land from the aggressor state. Among the 95 Ukrainian defenders resealed from Russian captivity were 34 Azov warfighters who were defending Mariupol city for almost three months.
WAR AFTERMATH
Human losses & war crimes
Ukrainian law enforcers obtained information about at least 102 Ukrainian soldiers executed by Russian invaders, most of them executed immediately after capture on the battlefield.
October 18: Russian invaders shot and killed a Ukrainian soldier, presumably wounded, who was captured while fighting on the Bakhmut front. An investigation into the killing is underway.
October 18: the bodies of 501 fallen defenders were returned to Ukraine as a result of repatriation measures.
Economy
The Ukrhydroenergo energy generating company has decided to cancel the tender for services to provide legal representation in the international arbitration against the Russian Federation regarding the compensation for the damages caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. The tender was suspended pending the consultations with the government.
Over the time of the all-out Russian invasion, Russia deployed more than 50 attacks on seaport infrastructure in Ukraine. The overall aftermath included damage and destruction to some 300 port infrastructure facilities, 23 civilian vessels and over 100,000 tons of grain and other agricultural produce.
Environment
Russia's war against Ukraine caused large-scale damage to the Ukrainian environment, including unprecedented contamination of the environment; the damage to Ukraine’s ecosystems is estimated to have reached $65 billion so far.
More than 6,000 environmental crimes had been recorded in Ukraine as of early September 2024, causing UAH 2.6–2.7 trillion worth of damage overall.
Over the time since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, 35,000 square kilometers have been surveyed and cleared of mines and explosive hazards, with another 174,000 square kilometers still considered contaminated with landmines and unexploded munitions.
Damage to healthcare system
Over the duration of the full-scale war, 1,673 healthcare establishments sustained damage and 223 others were destroyed to ruins in the aftermath of Russian air attacks; 887 establishments have already been restored back to operation.
UKRAINIAN HOME FRONT
President Volodymyr Zelensky:
visited an arms manufacturing factory in Ukraine and thanked its employees for the vital contribution they make to bolstering the country’s ability to defend itself;
signed into law the bill on "Rankings in the financial sector", which establishes uniform rules for determining and using rankings in the financial sector.
Visits to Ukraine
October 14: Canada’s Speaker of the House of Commons Greg Fergus arrived in Kyiv. In a speech delivered at Ukraine’s Parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, Greg Fergus urged allies to step up their support for Ukraine, so that they would not have to pay a much higher price later on.
October 16: The foreign ministers of Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Lithuania, Latvia and Denmark (the Nordic-Baltic Eight, NB8) arrived in Odesa. They met and talked with their Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha to discuss Ukraine’s Victory Plan and measures to beef up Ukraine's self-defense capabilities and energy resilience ahead of the cold season. Previously, they had agreed on a €44 million financial assistance package for Ukraine, which will be used to buy generators and solar panels, as announced by Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmör Stenergaard at a press briefing at the end of the visit. “We have signed a package for another EUR 44 million to help you close the gap in energy infrastructure. We are your North Baltic partners and will support you. We will also build up your air defense forces and strengthen your economy,” Mrs Stenergaard said, adding, “We want to see Ukraine become a member of the EU. We want a just peace, and this peace is impossible without Ukraine”.
October 19: France’s foreign minister pledged his support for Ukraine’s plan for ending the war with Russia, telling reporters in Kyiv on Saturday that he would work with Ukrainian officials to secure other nations’ backing for the proposal. “A Russian victory would be a consecration for the law of the strongest and would push the international order toward chaos,” Jean-Noël Barrot said at a joint news conference with his Ukrainian counterpart, Andrii Sybiha. “That is why our exchanges should allow us to make progress on President Zelensky’s victory plan and rally the greatest number possible of countries around it.” Barrot also announced that France would deliver the first batch of Mirage 2000 combat jets to Ukraine in the first three months of 2025, with Ukrainian pilots and mechanics also trained to fly and maintain them. “By resisting against the invader with exceptional courage, you are not only fighting for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but you are also holding a frontline that separates Europe from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, that separates freedom from oppression,” the French foreign minister said.
October 18: Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha met with Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Hungary Levente Magyar at the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. The press service of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reported that the meeting took place in continuation of the constructive dialogue between the parties. "During the meeting, the interlocutors discussed key issues of bilateral relations and emphasized the need to develop Ukrainian-Hungarian relations in the spirit of good neighborliness," the statement said.
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The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry (MFA) has poured cold water over reports that the country is planning on building weapons of mass destruction. Heorhii Tykhyi, a spokesperson for the ministry, said in a statement issued Thursday that the MFA refutes a recent report from the German tabloid BILD that claimed Kyiv was closing in on plans to build a nuclear bomb. The allegations came out in a report from BILD earlier in the day, and the outlet cited an unnamed senior Ukrainian official "specializing in weapons procurement." Tykhyi emphasized in his statement that Ukraine "remains a committed party" to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Kyiv agreed to dismantle its nuclear stockpile in exchange for security assurances from the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia. He added that Ukraine, "which has made the greatest contribution in history to international peace, security and nuclear non-proliferation, is now facing nuclear blackmail from the terrorist state of Russia." Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened on numerous occasions to consider using nuclear weapons amid his invasion of Ukraine if other countries interfered in the war.
Cabinet of Ministers:
Amended the Procedure for the Disposal of Missiles, Ammunition and Explosive Substances, allowing mobile ammunition disposal systems to be used in areas designated for mine clearance;
October 14: Law enforcement officers had checked 60% of the facilities that had received bomb threats. All of the reports checked turned out to be false, and the remaining facilities are being checked. The National Police said that since 12:40 a.m., all regions of the country have been receiving anonymous messages warning about mining of their buildings to the email addresses of state authorities, local governments and other facilities.
804 citizens contacted the Ukrainian army’s recruiting centers over the week from October 14 till 20, bringing the total to 20,954.
Law enforcement officers exposed three corrupt schemes of evasion from forced conscription for war, which operated in the cities of Kyiv and Cherkasy, as well as in Zakarpattia oblast. Among the organizers of the schemes are the heads of two private higher education institutions and officials of the Military Registration and Enlistment Commission. Particularly in Zakarpattia, the rector and vice-rector of a private university were detained for enrolling bachelor's degree candidates in their own and foreign universities without entrance exams. Officials promised these "students" an unimpeded deferment. For this purpose, they involved a military law enforcement officer in the illegal activities. After the SBU exposure, the local branch of the Uzhhorod Regional Military Commissariat canceled the previously granted deferments for 225 draft evaders who used the "student” scheme. In Kyiv region, a deputy director at a financial college and two of his subordinates were reportedly exposed for "retroactively" enrolling their clients in postgraduate programs. Within this scheme, the suspects "accompanied the admission" of the fugitives to a private research institute as students of a college where they did not actually study. In this way, the evaders were able to defer forced conscription and travel abroad. The cost of the “service” reached $8,000 per client. In Cherkasy, three members of a military medical commission were exposed in selling fake certificates about unfitness for military service for health reasons. The offenders face up to 8 years in prison if convicted.
October 16: The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) detained a security head at the state-owned energy company Ukrenergo for allegedly justifying Russia's full-scale invasion, questioning the existence of an independent Ukrainian state, and supporting the murder of civilians, the SBU said in a press statement released Wednesday, Oct. 16. The individual in question was Oleh Hrybenko, who is reportedly responsible for maintaining the security of critical infrastructure facilities. Beyond the suspect's anti-Ukrainian, pro-Russian rhetoric, the SBU said that he had also leaked information about the hits on critical infrastructure facilities. In a post on Telegram, Ukrenergo said it had suspended one of its employees in relation to the case. "Any manifestations of justification for Russian aggression are unacceptable for the Ukrenergo team," it said. Ukrenergo added that nine of its employees have been killed by Russian attacks while performing their official duties, and 11 others have died defending Ukraine. The suspect faces up to eight years in prison if convicted.
WAR ECONOMY
October 17: Ukraine’s State Budget received a tranche from the Government of Canada amounting to CAD 400 million (approx. USD 300 million). Thus, since the start of the full-scale war, direct budget support from Canada has reached USD 5.4 billion. The funds are provided on concessional terms: 10-year term, interest rate – 1.5% per annum. The grace period is 4.5 years from the date of receipt of funds. “Since February 2022, Canada has been Ukraine’s fifth-largest provider of budget support. Thanks to these funds, we have been able to maintain financial stability and meet essential state budget priorities. I am deeply grateful to the Government of Canada for its unwavering support,” Ukraine’s Finance Minister, Serhii Marchenko said. On October 11, the minister signed the Fourth Additional Agreement with the Government of Canada to attract a loan worth CAD 400 million.
Verkhovna Rada Speaker, Ruslan Stefanchuk signed the bill on the specifics of taxation amid martial law. Once adopted in Parliament, the bill is supposed to go to the President for his signature, and take force on the day of its promulgation.
The World Bank has reaffirmed its forecast for Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 3.2% in 2024. However, it has significantly downgraded the projection for 2025, reducing it from 6.5% to 2%. “The 2025 growth projection for Ukraine has been downgraded by 4.5 percentage points to 2 percent, reflecting the assumption of ongoing military hostilities,” the review states. At the same time, the World Bank has improved its growth estimate for 2026 by 1.9 percentage points to 7%.
The Cabinet of Ministers returned UAH 923.980 to the contingency fund in the State Budget. The funding was previously allocated to compensate for the costs of state-run, municipal and privately owned assets, but failed to be spent.
The gambling business has paid UAH 13.5 billion in taxes to the national budget over the January-September 2024 period, which is twice the amount paid year-on-year.
State-owned banks in Ukraine are ready to lend to local communities for autonomous power generation projects.
Cash expenditures from the base part of the national budget amounted to UAH 2.3 trillion in Q1FY24-Q3FY24, 10.7% up year-on-year.
In January-September 2024, the Naftogaz Group paid nearly UAH 67 billion in taxes to the national and local budgets.
Ukrainian exports amounted to USD 27.578 billion over the January 24 - August 24 period, which represents a 12% growth year on year. At the same time, the amount of imports increased by 9.8% year-on-year, to reach USD 45.191 billion.
ALLIED AND PARTNERS’ AID
The President of Ukraine met in Brussels with the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, held talks with the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, and met with the heads and co-heads of political groups in the EU Parliament. President Zelensky set out Kyiv’s Victory Plan to the EU country leaders and requested that payment of the EUR 35 billion loan to Ukraine be finalized by the end-of-year deadline. President Zelensky heald a closed-door meeting with the EU leaders, at which his Victory Plan was discussed. The plan found support with most of them.
COMMENT: Volodymyr Ohryzko, former Ukraine’s foreign minister: "No one says the Plan will begin being implemented tomorrow. It all happens a little bit differently. What matters the most for us at this stage is to get the Plan supported as a whole. That is, the European Union and NATO country leaders come together and say: yes, we support the idea, we understand why the Plan is needed, and we will work. This, in fact, is what was said by the US and by EU officials of various rankings. But the Plan’s implementation is a little bit different thing."
October 17: President Zelensky attended the Ukraine-NATO Council meeting held at the defense ministers’ level in Brussels. At the end of the event, he stated the need to act decisively and in unity in order to prevent Putin from intensifying and inflaming the war further.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, and the Prime Minister of Greece, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, signed an agreement on security cooperation on the sidelines of the European Council meeting in Brussels. Greece is the 21st member state of the European Union to sign a bilateral agreement with Ukraine. The agreement follows the accession of Greece and the EU to the G7 Joint Declaration (July 2023) on long-term security support for Ukraine and the follow-up EU-Ukraine agreement signed on 27 June 2024 on the margins of the European Council meeting in Brussels. The agreement paves the way for Greece’s active participation in Ukraine’s reconstruction efforts.
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US President Joe Biden arrived in Berlin for a brief visit, met with Federal President of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the leaders of Great Britain, France and Germany. The parties discussed the situation in Ukraine, the Victory Plan and the use of proceeds from frozen Russian central bank assets.
COMMENT: Oleksiy Buryachenko, policy analyst: "The meeting of the Four is a complex one. The main issue is securing the interests of the European countries. What worries them the most? First, the future of NATO, that is, how the United States sees the reform of the Alliance. Europeans are worried about whether the US will continue to support Ukraine, especially if Donald Trump returns to power. What guarantees can Joe Biden provide?"
October 17: At the end of the summit meeting in Brussels, the European Council adopted conclusions on Ukraine, in which it reiterated its resolute condemnation of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which constitutes a manifest violation of the UN Charter, and reaffirmed its continued support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders. It also reconfirmed the European Union’s unwavering commitment to continued support --political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military and diplomatic -- to Ukraine and its people for as long as it takes and as intensely as needed. Russia must not prevail.
October 19: Ukraine and Germany signed an agreement on immediate actions to strengthen Ukraine's air defense system. The agreement provides for arrangements under which the signatory countries will contribute to joint projects or finance their own projects aimed at strengthening the air defense capabilities of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. Five other signatory countries -- Germany, Belgium, Norway, the Netherlands, and Denmark -- are expected to join in the project.
The United States will not deploy the THAAD medium-range missile interceptor system near Ukraine to shoot down Russian missiles and drones, as it does for Israel, because the Russian-Ukrainian war and the war in the Middle East are different -- Deputy Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh.
October 17: Germany delivered a new military aid package to Ukraine, comprised of air defense equipment, armored vehicles, ammunition and suchlike supplies.
The Netherlands has committed to transfer EUR 42 million worth of reconnaissance drones produced by the DeltaQuad company to Ukraine.
France will give Ukraine another 12 Caesar self-propelled howitzers funded by proceeds from immobilized Russian central bank assets.
October 17: The US Treasury Department has sanctioned three Chinese legal entities and one individual involved in the production of Harpy long-range strike drones for the Russian army.The Harpy drone is manufactured in China in cooperation with Russian defense industries. The new US restrictions apply to the Chinese companies Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine, which produces L550E engines for the Harpies, and Redlepus Vector Industry Shenzhen, which is an intermediary in the supply of drones to Russia. "These are the first US sanctions imposed on PRC entities directly developing and producing complete weapons systems in partnership with Russian firms," the US Treasury Department said in a statement.
October 17: Britain said on Thursday it had imposed sanctions on 18 more Russian oil tankers and four liquefied natural gas vessels, the largest batch of sanctions to date against Russia's so-called "shadow fleet". Britain says the 'shadow fleet' uses illicit practices to avoid Western restrictions on Russian oil. The announcement came after the United States and Canada agreed to join a "call to action" to tackle it, which has been backed by 44 European countries after it was announced by Britain in July. The UK government said it was working with maritime authorities to demand that Russian vessels with suspected dubious insurance provide details of their insurance status as they pass through the English Channel. "Any actor that facilitates and supports Russia's malign activities could be exposing themselves to sanctions," the government said. Russia rejects Western pressure to limit its oil exports, and in the past year, there was growth in the number of tankers transporting cargoes that are not regulated or insured by conventional Western providers.
The Netherlands has committed EUR 271 million to buy large-caliber artillery projectiles for Ukraine.
Ukraine and Finland have created a civil defense coalition to build a network of modern air raid shelters.
After the United States, on numerous occasions, "caught" China supplying Russia with dual-purpose components that the latter used in the production of military weapons and equipment systems, the US unveiled its first ever sanctions against China-based companies for “directly developing and producing complete weapons systems in partnership with Russian firms” for use in Ukraine. The sanctions are for the alleged production of drones that Russia has deployed in its war against Ukraine, according to the US Treasury. Matthew Miller, spokesperson for the US State Department, claimed: “This was the first time we actually saw a Chinese company manufacturing a weapon itself that then was used on the battlefield by Russia.” The action relates to the Garpiya series long-range attack drone. The Treasury said the drone was “designed and developed by” China-based experts, then transferred to Russia for use against Ukraine. The two China-based companies sanctioned are Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine Co and Redlepus Vector Industry Shenzhen Co. Also targeted are Russia-based Limited Liability Company Trading House Vector and Artem Yamshchikov. Previous US sanctions have hit Chinese entities providing components to Russian firms to make weapons.
At a meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha briefed his EU counterparts on the latest developments on the ground, and the most pressing Ukrainian needs, especially in terms of air defense systems and sustainability of energy infrastructure ahead of the cold season.
EU sports ministers issued a joint declaration expressing their support for Ukraine, condemning Russian aggression and emphasizing the need to bar athletes from Russia and Belarus from international sports as long as their countries were engaged in the war in Ukraine.
October 17: The Council of Europe adopted a declaration that describes Russia’s destruction of Ukrainian cultural heritage as being consistent with genocide. In a statement released on Wednesday, the Council of Europe “deplored” Russian attacks on cultural heritage sites in Ukraine since the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022. Noting that more than a thousand cultural sites had been damaged or destroyed since the beginning of the war, the Congress underlined that the targeting and looting of cultural sites appeared to reflect a systematic policy aimed at erasing Ukraine’s historical and cultural identity, consistent with a genocidal intent,” the Council said. This new text frames the genocidal intent of Vladimir Putin’s war in the context of Russia’s destruction of Ukraine’s cultural heritage. Reparations to pay for the damage inflicted on historical, cultural and religious heritage are therefore in order, the Council continues. Because of this declaration, the Council will now “put Ukrainian cultural heritage and its recovery high on the political agenda, including at the 2025 Ukraine Recovery Conference to be held in Rome.”
The Energy Community, which unites the European Union and neighboring countries, said that problems with the certification of Ukrenergo as an independent operator will not affect Ukraine's ability to import electricity in winter.
A Ukrainian government delegation led by Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal arrived in Switzerland to attend the Conference on Mine Action in Ukraine. Switzerland will host an international conference on mine action in Ukraine. About 60 countries and organizations have confirmed their participation in the event, which will take place on October 17-18 in Lausanne.
Dozens of Abrams tanks will be sent to Ukraine as part of a new $245 million military aid package from Australia.
In light of continued attacks on Ukrainian nuclear power plants by Russia, the European Commission announced the allocation of an additional EUR 3 million to support the work of the IAEA missions to Ukrainian substations associated with nuclear power plants. "We also discussed Ukraine's concerns about Russia's potential attacks on substations linked to nuclear power plants. And I have informed ministers today that the Commission is ready to mobilise an additional EUR 3 million to support the missions by the International Atomic Energy Agency to the substations," European Commissioner Kadri Simson said. In addition, the European Commissioner said that she had reiterated her plea for the ministers of the EU member states "to continue donations to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund as well as contribute to the protection of Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure."
At the 44th regular meeting of the Commission for the Protection of the Black Sea from Pollution, the Ukrainian delegation managed to prevent the transfer of its chairmanship from Romania to Russia.
WAR&LIFE
October 14/ The war forced them out of their homes: In Zaporizhzhia, shelter is given to elderly people who have lost their homes.
QUOTE: "There were explosions in the town of Hulyaipole. The woman started calling her daughter and son-in-law. There was no contact with them. As it turned out later, the family was hiding from shelling in the cellar. - We didn't leave, we ran away. Shells flew after us."
October 15/ The offensive on Zaporizhzhia is an overwhelming task for the enemy.
QUOTE: Oleksandr Musienko, head of the Center for Military and Legal Studies, says that the enemy does not have the capability to break through Ukrainian defenses: "I would not say that the enemy now has the potential to break through our defense line on the Zaporizhzhia front and breach through to the city of Zaporizhzhia proper. There is no such potential."
October 16/ Victory Plan: Forcing the Russian Federation into peace and an attempt to revive the West's faith in itself
QUOTE: "The Plan’s first aim is to make it clear to our international partners why supporting Ukraine is more beneficial than reaching any agreements with Putin. The second aim is the unification of the Ukrainian society. In fact, we are talking about a kind of wartime social contract, which clearly demonstrates that the government is not going to surrender, but is determined to prevail... The third key point is linking this plan with the Peace Formula, which demonstrates Ukraine's willingness for a diplomatic solution to this conflict."
October 17/ Biden's meeting with European leaders: they will talk about the Victory Plan and Trump
QUOTE: "It will be about two key issues. The first is brainstorming over "plan B" in the context of the option with Trump's victory in the US elections. That is, what should the European Union, European NATO member states do in this case, and also how to maintain normal relations between Europe and America."
Compiled by Maryna Dmytriv, Kyiv
