Ukraine expects to receive at least $37B in international aid in 2024 – NBU Governor

The relevant statement was made by National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Governor Andriy Pyshnyy in an interview with ICTV, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

“Ukraine’s budget is in deficit today. The deficit is at about 26% of GDP. We are balancing the budget, primarily at the expense of international aid being provided to Ukraine. Last year we received more than $32 billion. This year we expect to receive $42 billion, and next year at least $37 billion,” Pyshnyy told.

In his words, the challenges that Ukraine’s economy is facing are remaining indefinite. The macro forecast prepared by the NBU takes into account several factors that have critical risks for its implementation, namely the duration of active hostilities.

“The war, according to our estimates, an active phase of hostilities will last at least through the first half of 2024,” Pyshnyy noted.

In his opinion, the situation of uncertainty is vividly illustrated by the example of the ‘grain corridor’.

“Our April macro forecast assumed that the ‘grain corridor’ would operate with certain restrictions. The enemy decided to debunk this agreement, and the ‘grain corridor’ is now blocked. It will cost Ukraine at least $2 billion in the first half of the year,” Pyshnyy explained.

Another serious challenge for Ukraine’s economy is migration, according to Pyshnyy.

“In our macro forecast, we were planning that the migration flow would be positive, and people would be returning this year. But, now, as missile attacks have intensified, we can see that this is not happening,” Pyshnyy told.

Hence, despite certain positive developments, such as sustainable disinflationary trend, reduced key policy rate and restored public confidence in national currency, the NBU Governor called for staying pragmatic and not falling into euphoria.