UGA increases forecast of grains, oilseeds harvest to 80.5M t

According to Ukrinform, the UGA reported this.

The increase in the forecast of this year's harvest is due to favorable weather conditions and better crop yields than expected, although the area sown is smaller than 2022 (by almost 2 million hectares).

The UGA improved its estimate of the wheat harvest from 20.2 to 22 million tonnes (20.2 million tonnes in 2022 and a record 33 million tonnes in 2021). The potential wheat exports in 2023/2024 marketing year (MY) may reach about 16 million tonnes, given the carry-over stocks of 4.4 million tonnes at the beginning of the season.

The barley harvest estimate for 2023 also increased from 5.2 to 5.8 million tonnes (in 2021, 10.1 million tonnes, in 2022, 5.8 million tonnes). Potential exports in 2023/2024 MY can be expected at 3 million tonnes.

Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season have improved from 26.9 to 28 million tonnes (in 2021, 37.6 million tonnes, in 2022, 27.3 million tonnes), with exports potentially reaching about 22 million tonnes.

This year's sunflower harvest is expected to reach 13.9 million tonnes (in 2021, 16.9 million tonnes, in 2022, 11.1 million tonnes). Potential exports could reach 0.5 million tonnes. Sunflower processing for oil may reach 13.2 million tonnes.

The UGA experts estimate the rapeseed harvest in 2023 at 4.1 million tonnes. Exports in 2023/2024 MY are expected to reach 4 million tonnes. The soybean harvest is expected to be 4.8 million tonnes. The potential exports in 2023/2024 MY may reach 3.3 million tonnes.

In general, according to the UGA estimates, the export of grains and oilseeds from Ukraine in the new season 2023/2024 could potentially reach almost 49 million tonnes. Last season (which ended on June 30, 2023), according to the UGA, exports reached 58 million tonnes.

The UGA emphasizes that such export volumes in the new season can be achieved if Ukraine is able to export through its Black Sea ports, as well as if the logistics of alternative routes, including the Danube route, are improved and cheaper.

Experts note that if Ukrainian farmers cannot export their products, they may reorient their production and abandon grain growing. This will further deepen the crisis in the global food market in the medium term.

As Ukrinform reported, in early August this year, the UGA increased its forecast for the harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine by 7.8 million tonnes to 76.8 million tonnes.