Harvest of grains, oilseeds this year to reach 81.6M t - UGA forecast

The UGA reported this, Ukrinform saw.

Analysts attribute the steady improvement in this year's forecast to favorable weather conditions and better yields of most crops. This time, the calculations were influenced by the increase in the expected harvest of corn and sunflower. At the same time, the UGA reminded that last year Ukraine harvested 73.8 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds.

"The estimate of the wheat harvest in 2023 remained at 22 million tonnes (20.2 million tonnes in 2022, and a record 33 million tonnes in 2021). Potential wheat exports in 2023/2024 marketing year (MY) may reach 16 million tonnes, taking into account that at the beginning of the season the carry-over stocks amounted to 4.4 million tonnes," the report says.

The UGA forecasts the barley harvest at last year's level - 5.8 million tonnes, with exports expected to reach 3 million tonnes. Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season have improved slightly - by 0.8 million tonnes to 28.8 million tonnes. This is about 1.5 million tonnes more than last year's harvest. At the same time, potential corn exports could reach 23 million tonnes.

The sunflower harvest in the UGA is forecast at 14.2 million tonnes against last year's 11.1 million tonnes, with potential exports of 0.6 million tonnes. The volume of sunflower processing for oil will reach 13.2 million tonnes. The expected harvest of rapeseed is 4.2 million tonnes, while exports in 2023/2024 MY will amount to 3.7 million tonnes. 4.8 million tonnes of soybeans are expected to be harvested and 3.3 million tonnes exported.

Thus, the total exports of agri-products of plant origin from Ukraine in the marketing season 2023/2024 could potentially reach 50 million tonnes. Last season, 58 million tonnes of agri-products and raw materials were exported.

"The UGA once again emphasizes that such export volumes in the new season can only be achieved if Ukraine is able to export through its Black Sea ports, as well as if the logistics of alternative routes, including the Danube route, are improved and made cheaper. Exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries that desperately need it," the UGA concludes.

As reported, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, in October 2023, Ukraine exported 4.8 million tonnes of agri-products, which is 15% more than in September. In particular, 2.5 million tonnes of grain crops, 914,000 tonnes of oilseeds, 508,700 tonnes of oil, and 491,500 tonnes of cake after extraction of vegetable oils were exported.