UGA expects Ukraine’s grain, oilseed harvest to decline in 2024

The relevant statement was made by the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

“The current forecast is based on the average weather conditions of the last 5 years, so the improvement or deterioration of these conditions in the spring and summer may lead to adjustments.  The potential decline in the new season’s harvest will be caused by a reduction in the area under crops, mainly cereals, due to unfavorable global price conditions and relatively expensive export logistics,” the report states.

According to the UGA, under such conditions, in the new season 2024/2025, the export volumes may come to about 43.7 million tonnes. In the current season, Ukraine’s grain and oilseed exports may reach 53.1 million tonnes provided that the Ukrainian maritime corridor and the Danube routes operate smoothly.

In 2024, Ukraine’s yield of wheat is expected to be about 20 million tonnes, which is 2 million tonnes lower compared to the previous season. The potential export of wheat in the marketing year 2024/2025 is likely to reach about 13 million tonnes, considering that the carry-over stocks will be 2.4 million tonnes at the beginning of the season.

The yield of barley may come to 4.6 million tonnes compared to 5.8 million tonnes in 2023. The potential export of barley will be about 2 million tonnes.

Following the UGA’s estimates, Ukraine’s yield of corn is likely to reach 26.3 million tonnes in 2024, which is 3 million tonnes lower compared to last year. The potential export of corn will be about 20.5 million tonnes.

“Expectations for the corn crop in the new season are deteriorating due to a possible reduction in the area planted to maize. Farmers are suffering losses due to too low purchase prices for the crop, driven by a decline in world prices,” the UGA noted.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s yield of sunflowers is expected to come to about 13.7 million tonnes compared to 14.2 million tonnes in 2023. The potential export of sunflowers may reach up to 250 thousand tonnes, while the sunflower oil production volumes were estimated at about 13.6 million tonnes.

The yield of rapeseed is likely to be about 4.2 million tonnes, which is slightly lower compared to 2023 (4.3 million tonnes). Ukraine’s rapeseed exports will be the same as in the current season, totaling 3.6 million tonnes.

The UGA experts believe that soybeans are likely to be the only crop in Ukraine, whose planted areas may expand this year. The yield of soybeans was estimated at about 5.5 million tonnes, and the potential export may come to 4 million tonnes in the marketing year 2024/2025 (compared to about 3.3 million tonnes in the current season).

A reminder that, as of December 29, 2023, Ukrainian farmers harvested 79.2 million tonnes of grain and oilseed crops.