Price growth in September higher than forecast - NBU

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said this in a commentary on the inflation rate in September 2024, Ukrinform reports.

“The actual rate of price growth exceeded the forecast published in the July 2024 Inflation Report. At the same time, underlying inflationary pressures also increased to a greater extent than anticipated. The core inflation rate increased from 6.5% in August to 7.3% in September,” the report says.

The NBU noted that the deviation from the forecast was primarily due to a more rapid acceleration of food inflation due to a limited supply of certain types of food products. The growth in raw food prices accelerated sharply to 7.1% year-on-year, while administratively regulated prices showed a slight acceleration to 14.0% year-on-year.

The NBU attributed the rapid slowdown in fuel price growth to 6.0% year-on-year to low oil prices and high stocks. However, the first stage of the fuel excise tax hike in September primarily affected the price of autogas, while gasoline and diesel prices grew more slowly.

“Inflationary pressures will persist in the coming months due to increased budget expenditures, further aggravation of labor market imbalances, and the expected increase in electricity shortages during the heating season,” the National Bank noted.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, according to the State Statistics Service, consumer prices increased by 1.5% in September compared to the previous month.

The NBU expects inflation to accelerate moderately this year, reaching 8.7% by the end of the year. In 2025, it will decline to 6.6% and return to 5% in 2026.

Photo: NBU