Russian fake: Pentagon analysts 'predicted' Europe's defeat in war with Russia within two months
Russian bot networks on social media are spreading a video falsely attributed to the Artificial Intelligence Cyber Challenge (AIxCC) -- a department within DARPA, the Pentagon-affiliated agency responsible for researching advanced defense projects.
The video falsely claims that DARPA analysts simulated a hypothetical Russia-Europe conflict and concluded that unified Europe would "collapse in two months" in the event of a war with Russia. The clip also features a supposed statement from AIxCC analyst Wil Corvey, alleging that the war's consequences for EU nations would be far worse because Russia is not using its full military strength in Ukraine due to the "closeness of the two peoples."
This is a fake. No such video or study has been published on DARPA's official website or social media accounts. The most recent upload on the AIxCC section of DARPA's official YouTube channel dates back four months, featuring only live presentations by agency analysts.
Additionally, AIxCC does not conduct geopolitical forecasts. It is a cybersecurity and artificial intelligence division.
Wil Corvey is indeed part of the AIxCC team, but he is a cybersecurity specialist focused on developing AI tools to combat deepfakes. His LinkedIn profile confirms this expertise.
Corvey also has a personal website, and Russian propagandists used a photo from that site to fabricate the fake video.
The video intro was copied from an authentic DARPA video. The images of European military personnel were sourced from publicly available content online.
This disinformation is targeted at Western audiences and aims to sow doubt among Ukraine's allies -- particularly those considering deploying a peacekeeping mission to secure peace guarantees in Ukraine.
Notably, this Russian propaganda piece emerged just before the "Coalition of the Willing" summit in Paris on March 27.
Previously, Russian propaganda spread another fake story using a "Finnish journalist" to falsely accuse the Ukrainian Armed Forces of "atrocities" in Sudzha.
Andriy Olenin
