Putin needs internal destabilization, riots in Kyiv across Ukraine’s regions – delegate to TCG

This is an opinion voiced by Serhiy Harmash, a member of Ukraine’s delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (Ukraine, Russia, OSCE) on Donbas settlement, who spoke with RFE/RL’s Ukrainian bureau.

According to him, the best example for Putin was the unrest in Kazakhstan earlier this year, where at the request of President Kassym-Jomart Tokajev, CSTO troops – primarily Russian – were deployed. According to Harmash, it would be beneficial for the Kremlin to do just that in Ukraine, provoking chaos in Kyiv and other cities before actually introducing troops.

"Putin has no intention of a full-scale offensive. For him, the most desirable option is actually the ‘Kazakhstan’ one, where he himself would be called to occupy us. But this requires internal destabilization, domestic unrest here in Kyiv and other regions of Ukraine. And Putin can achieve this in different ways. One of them is the military defeat of Ukraine forces, probably somewhere in Donbas, on which he counts (following the example of the defeat of the Armed Forces in Ilovaisk in 2014 and in Debaltseve in 2015). And he won’t present this as a ‘Russian military offensive,’ it will be claimed to be the one by the so-called ‘LPR,’ ‘DPR,’ or CADLR,’” said the Ukrainian delegate.

According to Harmash, many Western capitals in this case would wish to hear Putin out.

"Because, say, Berlin and Paris aren’t too willing to impose sanctions on him. Another way is if Ukraine agrees to enter into a direct dialogue with Donetsk and Luhansk within the Trilateral Contact Group. And I think that in most regions of Ukraine, people won’t accept this. So this could also lead to internal destabilization. And this also suits Putin perfectly. The third way is false bomb reports, cyber attacks, or provoking an energy crisis. After all, we know that regional power companies in Ukraine are also part of Russian capital, unfortunately,” Harmash added.

As reported earlier, on January 2, rallies erupted in western Kazakhstan against the sharp rise in liquefied gas prices. They escalated into mass protests. Authorities declared a state of emergency across the country and appealed to the Collective Security Treaty Organization for help in suppressing the riots. Russian troops and forces of other CSTO allies were deployed in Kazakhstan.

According to official figures, at least 227 people were killed and more than 9,000 were detained amid Kazakhstan protests.

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