Grain all-in, compensation for Putin, double for Belarus
Putin once again blurted out nonsense about Poland's aggressive plans for Ukraine, and Ihor Hirkin (Strelkov) was detained in Moscow "for extremism." "The Wagnerites are turning into a component of destabilizing the Baltic-Black Sea region.
The Kremlin's penchant for being the truth in the last resort is not news to anyone interested in contemporary politics. However, the suspension of Russia's participation in the grain deal concluded a year ago by Russia and Ukraine with the UN and Turkey has been accompanied by military and political actions that can hardly be called adequate. Not only are the russists subjecting Odesa and other Black Sea cities to barbaric shelling in an attempt to destroy port infrastructure, but they are also undermining the position of Recep Erdogan, for whom mediation between Russia and Ukraine is an important part of his image. Russian missile attacks are not only destroying buildings in Odesa, but also driving out the remnants of the "Russian world." Ukraine has called for consultations in the NATO-Ukraine Council and, through Dmytro Kuleba, declares its readiness to independently organize grain exports to ensure the world's food security. Of course, NATO's assistance in this situation will not be superfluous, not only in the naval sense, but also in the political arena, as Russia is trying to act on the global food market as if it had not been waging a full-scale war against Ukraine for 17 months.
Vladimir Putin refused to personally participate in the BRICS summit scheduled for August in South Africa. The International Criminal Court's warrant for the arrest of the Russian president, who is accused of abducting Ukrainian children, has been in effect for more than 4 months, even as a preventive measure. The leader of a nuclear-armed state hardly dares to poke his nose outside the territory of his country, even if it is the largest in the world. There is no practical reason to talk about the international authority of the Kremlin's master. Putin's latest bout of anti-Polish hysteria last week only shows his desire to add fuel to the fire of the parliamentary campaign there, as the label of "Kremlin agent" in contemporary Polish politics can lead to a duel. Of course, on live television.
The detention of Ihor Hirkin (Strelkov) by Russian security forces on charges of extremism indicates an escalation of the struggle within the ruling class. There is already a version circulating in Moscow that the catalyst for the repression of the "hero of the struggle for Donbas" was negative feedback about Alina Kabayeva. In any case, Hirkin, who criticized the generals on social media, will spend the next two months in a pre-trial detention center, while Prigozhin, who attempted an armed rebellion a month ago, eventually showed himself in Belarus.
In this situation, Putin continues to exploit Lukashenko's dependence. The latter is rapidly turning Belarus into a source of danger for the Baltic-Black Sea region at the Kremlin's behest, surrendering the remnants of the state's sovereignty. The formal independence of Belarus attracts much more attention to demonstrative actions with the redeployment of Wagnerian troops and the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons on its territory than similar actions in the Kaliningrad region. The combination of these two factors of potentially powerful influence on public opinion in Lithuania and Poland demonstrates the Kremlin's readiness to internationalize the conflict, its desire to create alarmist sentiments in the region and reduce the role of Poland and Lithuania in helping Ukraine. In this regard, Lukashenko is diligently playing his role, trying not to go beyond the limits set by the scenario.
Yevhen MAGDA, Institute of World Policy
The first photo: Oleh Kiper, TG
