Eugene Vindman is a twin brother of Alex Windman, who was a key figure in the impeachment of former US President Donald Trump. As a qualified lawyer, Eugene confirmed in the relevant report public accusations his brother had put forward against Donald Trump over pressure exerted on President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to launch an investigation against rival Joe Biden.
US Army Colonel (retired) Eugene Vindman is in charge of numerous humanitarian and defense projects to help Ukraine, the country in which he was born in 1975, repel Russian invasion and prevail in the war.
He also works with the Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group (ACA), set up by the US, EU, and UK to support the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine in investigation and prosecution of war crimes and violations of international humanitarian law, committed as a result of Russia’s unprovoked and illegal war.
In an interview with Ukrinform, Eugene Vindman spoke about the peculiarities of probing Russian war crimes, separately dwelling on the crime of genocide, revealed some details of the American political situation and malign influence of disinformation on public attitudes toward continued support for Ukraine, assessed Russia’s potential in the east of Ukraine, and spoke of his current initiatives to help Ukraine.
IN INVESTIGATING WAR CRIMES, IT'S IMPORTANT TO IDENTIFY THE CHAIN OF COMMAND
- You personally saw the aftermath of Russian missile strikes in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and other cities where the evidence of these war crimes was collected. At the same time, after numerous attacks on civil infrastructure facilities, Russia continues to claim that it was Ukraine that opened fire on its citizens, and some still take this claim as it is, as well as the narrative that Ukraine "had been bombing Donbas for eight years" and that’s why Russia attacked. Why, in your opinion, is still not crystal clear to everyone around the world that Russia is committing brutal terror against the civilian population of Ukraine? What arguments can be used to convince those who are still in doubt before it is actually proven in court of law?
- I've been to Ukraine 14 times since June last year, I've been to most parts of the country except far east. I've seen what to me is obvious evidence of war crimes. Of course, what the Russians committed in Bucha and Irpin, and many other parts of the country was outright murder. They indiscriminately target civilians and civilian objects, which is a violation of law of war. And there is an enormous amount of evidence to prove it. Currently Ukraine has somewhere around 90,000 cases for prosecutors to work on, and they're being investigated at the district, oblast, and national levels.
My group that I work with, the inter-institutional working group involving prosecutors, military experts, intelligence services, the SBU and National Police, is working to identify not only the initial perpetrator, the one who fired the bullet, but also the chain of command, which is the important thing in war crimes. It's a whole command responsible for giving illegal, unlawful orders.
There are some complications, obviously, as a number of the weapons systems are used by both Russians and Ukrainians so it causes some level of confusion. But for experienced war crime investigators and police services it's not that difficult to figure things out by looking at where a missile was fired from, where it was fired. Also, there are unique missile systems that are unique to Russians, like Kinzhals or Kalibrs. So there is an enormous amount of evidence, and I think that unless you're an apologist for Russia or want to ignore the facts, it is obvious or will become obvious once these cases are brought before court of law where there's a standard of proof beyond reasonable doubt, where you have adequate defense attorneys and prosecutors in the contested environment. It will be clear that the Russians are the ones that have committed these crimes.
STATEMENTS BY PUTIN AND OTHER MEMBERS OF THE REGIME WILL BECOME CRUCIAL ELEMENTS IN PROSECUTION OF GENOCIDE
- An acclaimed historian Timothy Snyder, in order to back the assumption that Russia has been committing the genocide of Ukrainians, cites statements of Russian officials targeting their domestic audience. Can this be used in court as proof of purposeful actions aimed at the complete or partial destruction of a certain population on a national or ethnic basis, which, in fact, constitutes genocide?
-There are a number of elements in genocide and as you said, it's a complete or partial destruction of population and it could be geographical in nature. And obviously, one specific element is the deportation or abductions of children, and we've already seen the International Criminal Court issuing an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin and his accomplice in the Kremlin (children’s ombudsperson Maria Lvova-Belova – ed.) so there appears to be significant evidence of crimes against humanity and elements of genocide.
Genocide is the crime that requires a state of mind. So there are a couple of different pieces to it. One is incitement to genocide. So even if it doesn’t result in genocide, statements of incitement to genocide can be prosecuted. But in order to prove criminal guilt, you have to prove the act besides the intent. And these statements by Putin, his propagandists and other members of the regime are indicators of that intent and I think there will become crucial elements of any potential prosecution of genocide.
You can have direct evidence of intent, which is, say, Putin or somebody else signing an order, but you can also have circumstantial evidence of intent – their statements claiming that the Ukrainian people don't exist, that Ukraine has to be eradicated as it’s all part of Russia. These indicate in intent. And, obviously, these paired with acts of the Russian armed forces, the Russian administration in occupied territories will create an overall picture of what is going on and whether it amounts to the crime of genocide.
SOME CIRCUIT BOARDS FOUND IN RUSSIAN WEAPONS ARE LABELED "MADE IN THE USA"
- Since the full-scale invasion, the US and the EU have introduced a range of restrictions against Russia, which were to become "sanctions from hell" for the Russian economy, but not only has Russia survived those, moreover, its GDP is on the rise, and Russia’s economy, experts suggest, could rebound to pre-war levels as early as 2024. Why do you think the sanctions didn’t work as expected? Is it possible to stop Russia at all with these or some additional sanctions?
Obviously I think there's a lot more work to do on sanctions. I think that the world came together at the beginning to implement probably the harshest set sanctions. That could have been anticipated beforehand but they’re insufficient to achieve the goal of stopping Russia, and the Russians have adapted so additional sanctions will be necessary.
Sanctions are a measure that also requires adaptation, like on the battlefield. So this work should not stop. It should be looked at as an ongoing campaign, just like the military one, to bring Russians to heel, to prevent their bad behavior. It should involve stopping Western technology from getting into Russia. I mean, I personally visited some forensics facilities, where I've seen circuit boards labeled very proudly “Made in the USA” and to me that's very disappointing that US components are being used to bomb and kill Ukrainians. There’s sanctions evasion on the part of Russia through different parts of Central Asia that needs to be clamped down on.
This sanctions regime requires continual maintenance, continual review, and targeted measures against the oil and gas industry, as well as high technology. I like to think of this as an analyst looking at these critical nodes in the Russian economy and the Russian war machine, and then attacking those nodes in order to cause the Russian war machine to sputter.
IT MUST BE EXPLAINED TO AMERICANS HOW RUSSIAN AGGRESSION AFFECTS THEM IN THEIR NATIVE TOWN
- A joint survey by IPSOS and Reuters run in early October showed that 41% of US citizens believe that Washington should provide defense assistance to Ukraine, whereas in June, it was 65%. The authors of the survey said that the level of military and economic assistance to Ukraine is on decline among the Americans because of their own financial woes. How can U.S. citizens be convinced that the war is in fact not as far as it seems to be and that it really matters for America, and that the war drags on precisely because the international support for Ukraine’s armed forces is also stretched in time?
This is an area that concerns me greatly but I don't look at any one poll. This one is not particularly positive but there are other surveys that show much more positive numbers. And I think, generally speaking, support for Ukraine in one form or another, whether it’s humanitarian or to a lesser degree military, remains among one of the few issues that most Americans, both left and right, are still supportive of.
But we do have some political issues in our country where we have one party that is basically incapable of governing and internally organizing itself. It's a tyranny of the minority. A small group within one party is really causing global issues in support to Israel, in support to Ukraine, and in internal US affairs, so it’s a major problem. But I see areas of hope because we see that Jim Jordan (a nominee for House speaker critical of the Ukraine aid – ed.) was recently defeated. He's very much in the fringe, being part of the wing of MAGA Republicans. So there's hope that there'll be a resolution. It's taken way too long. It's very frustrating to me and other Americans that want to have a functional government.
There's a lot of disinformation, with figures being thrown around as regards support to Ukraine worth over $100 billion… But when you look at the military aid component, the actual value of the military aid actually transferred, it's only a small amount, I believe, less than 30 percent, so I think we have to be really accurate and truthful about the numbers.
Officials and leaders speak to the American people about the amount of investment without one drop of American blood spilled. Obviously, there've been Americans killed that have gone over as voluntees because they understand what the stakes are, that this. is a fight for freedom, that Ukraine is on the frontline defending American and Western values, but there’s been not one uniform military death. Ukraine is destroying a huge Russian military force. After all, Russia is one of the greatest destabilizing forces in the world. They conduct malign activities all around the world, and Ukraine has for the last 18 months has been degrading Russia’s strength – all for a fairly small US investment.
I think it makes a huge amount of sense and it's also obvious that we live in an interconnected world. So what happens in Ukraine, what happens in the Middle East affects oil and food prices. This affects what Americans pay at the pump and at their grocery store.
I think economics is a strong argument to make to any population. So it’s important to explain how it affects Americans at a grocery store, that what Russia fosters affects Americans in their native town.
Also, only a small fraction of funds is actually transferred to Ukraine unlike what’s being told to Americans by Fox News or MAGA people like Marjorie Taylor-Greene or Matt Gaetz.
What really happens is the US transfers to Ukraine its old systems from our inventory and excess defense, articles and then the US defense manufacturers get paid to basically build brand new systems. So these are jobs in the US. These are funds being sent spent in US. This is where the vast majority of the funds are being allocated.
NO SINGLE WEAPONS SYSTEM CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON THE BATTLEFIELD, BUT THE COMBINATION OF SYSTEMS CAN
- Russia has resumed the offensive in several sections of the front in a bid to claw back the positions they lost recently. Do you believe another large-scale Russian offensive throughout the frontline is possible – similar to the one we saw at the outset of the invasion? To what extent will the limited amount of ATACMS missiles affect the battlefield situation?
- It's obvious the Russians have resumed their offensive, but they're now a much weaker force. Their capabilities are much reduced, and they have not improved their major issues with command and control, and logistics. So, while I think they may achieve some local successes (but I’m not even saying they will), even those offer no foreground conclusion. There are indeed some areas of concern, like Avdiivka and Kupiansk, but so far, based on the conversations I've had, the Ukrainian forces are fighting quite well, destroying massive amounts of Russian military materiel and personnel. The current estimated Russian death toll I'm seeing is approaching 300,000, so if you do regular battlefield math, if you multiply that number by two to account for wounded and captured, that’s 600,000. Overall, Russia has suffered since the start of the war somewhere between 750,000 and 1 million in casualties.
Obviously, Ukraine has suffered significant casualties as well. And given that Russia is three and a half times the size of Ukraine, it can absorb some of the casualties better but that’s still a significant amount and eventually, the Russian population, their mothers, wives, children, brothers, and sisters will feel this.
I'm not seeing that impact yet, but it's hard for me to believe that once number reaches close to a million, I that the Russian people will not start to feel that more greatly.
As for ATACMS, which were delayed for way too long and eventually got to Ukraine, have made an enormous impact as was seen on two airfields hit by the Ukrainian forces – in Berdiansk and Luhansk. Also, ATACMs will have a significant impact on the battlefield, even in small amounts. But there’s no silver bullet. There's not one system that's going to make a difference. You have to pair ATACMS with the M1 tanks, F-16s, and drones, and all of these systems require training and logistics. And all these elements are going to make a difference on the battlefield together.
Ukrainian forces are also on the offensive and have really massive successes in the Black Sea, pushing the Russian fleet out of most of Crimea, destroying Russian naval assets, opening corridors for Ukrainian grain shipments. Now, it’s close to 30 ships that have exited Ukrainian ports, providing significant amounts of food to the world. There are Ukrainian offensives continuing to grind away at Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, where there are some positive developments. There’s some seesawing currently but I think overall, the advantage remains with Ukraine and my assessment is that things are still positive for Ukrainian forces.
TRUMP'S VOTER BASE HAS NO CHANCE TO INCREASE
- Your brother Alexander said in an interview with the Ukrainian media in early July that, if Trump is elected, U.S. support will be brought to a halt, and that it is best for Ukraine to push out the Russians as soon as possible. Do you share his point of view? And how realistic is it for Ukraine to quickly achieve this success under current conditions?
I think, unfortunately, most of the hopes of a rapid breakthrough, a rapid attack into Crimea are not realistic or not possible. I think there are still some developments that have meaningful operational effects on the battlefield. The Ukrainian forces in the next couple of months may be able to reach Tokmak and Melitopol, which might be much more difficult. I think these are going to be significant operational victories because they'll allow long-range missiles like ATACMS and HIMARS to target all of the logistics hubs on the Russian side.
I do think that the most dangerous thing for Ukraine – and frankly for America and the world – is another Trump’s presidency. He's proven himself to be a criminal. And he's proven himself to be incompetent in managing global affairs. He's proven himself to be weak and, in fact, supportive of authoritarian regimes in Russia, North Korea, and China. So there is a significant danger to Ukraine and the world if Trump gets reelected. Having said that, I don't think that he is going to be particularly competitive in the general election. Obviously he's going to be a nominee from his party but I just don't see right now that he'll get elected and there's no guarantee he'll make it there, either.
Just this week, in the last 48 hours, two of his co-conspirators in the scheme to steal election plead guilty. And these are lawyers very close to his inner circle, people that spoke to him directly. So there's a lot more on his legal challenges before the elections occur as well.
So I'm not super concerned about Trump right at this time. He does have a base of somewhere around 30 to 40 percent that is solid. Those people will vote for him no matter what. But there's no chance that will increase. In 2022, the American people had a choice to support fringe conservatives from MAGA. And there were estimates that Republicans would win 30 plus seats but they won five in the House of Representatives in an election that was projected to be much worse. So I think that the last several election cycles have demonstrated that the poles are just not accurate for some reason.
ISRAEL'S LUKEWARM SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE MAY CHANGE TO PROACTIVE ONE
- Do you see a cause and effect relationship between Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Hamas attack on Israel, given the geopolitical interests pursued by Russia and its allies, including those who have so far refrained from openly backing Russia’s war on Ukraine?
- I do see a connection. I think Russia operates in strategic environment where they have assets in different parts of the world that they can activate. They have Wagner elements that have supported coups in North Africa.
They have relationships in the Middle East with terrorist organizations and Iran. And I think there are some indications of this evidence. This will be borne out in the course of the next months and years, but I think Russia did play a role. They recently hosted in Moscow delegations from Iran, they hosted terrorist groups, and those linkages that exist establish that they had a role. I think, this will be borne out and they need to suffer the consequences. I think they will. We've already seen some members of the Israeli government come out and say, “Look, we're dealing with an immediate situation now of Hamas and potentially Hezbollah, but once that's over, we're going to turn our attention to dealing with Russian threats.”
I believe there’ll be some interesting developments across the Middle East and in other parts of the world that will affect Russia negatively. I would also anticipate that the issue of Israel’s lukewarm support for Ukraine will also shift to much more active support.
WESTERN-SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AND REPAIRED IN UKRAINE, NOT IN POLAND 1,000 AWAY FROM THE FRONTLINE
- At what stage is the Trident Support project you launched with your brother to create close to a front line a repair center for the western military equipment damaged in combat? Could you tell us more about the project?
- Trident Support is one of a number of different efforts that my brother Alex and I have been involved in. We’ve been involved in humanitarian efforts, we have benefactors that we're trying to put together for veterans services and prosthetics. We've supported the transfer of over $10 million of funds in frontline ambulance services. Within the next week, there's going to be a very large shipment of extreme cold weather gear to support the National Guard of Ukraine – over 37,000 items of equipment. Other areas that we're trying to assist Ukraine with is capacity building -be it about armored vehicles or satellite-based information. One of the main factors is that as Ukraine transitions from short war, on which people hope, to long war, there need to be some structural changes. For instance, there has got to be enormous amounts of training provided for Ukrainian forces all the way from squad level to brigade and combined arms. And combined arms is basically putting together aviation assets, UAVs, tanks, artillery, and infantry into a combined attack across a large front that can generate breakthroughs and momentum.
In addition to the training aspects, you need to have logistics planned operationally by the military forces, servicing and maintenance for the equipment. There have been enormous amounts of equipment donated from the West, and Ukraine has had to deal with a variety of different tanks and artillery from many parts of the world, frequently provided without documentation, without manuals on how to maintain them, and without spare parts.
So one of the projects that we're working on is trying to provide this organic maintenance, repair and maintenance-repair training capability within Ukraine for Western-donated equipment – from F-16s to M1s and artillery, the M777s, and more. All these systems need to be maintained – not across the border in Poland a thousand kilometers from the front but inside of Ukraine in hubs manned by Ukrainian technicians and mechanics turning the wrenches, returning the vehicles back to combat.
Everything how the war has been structured so far is the West has provided a bunch of these vehicles, some of them have been totally destroyed and some are down for maintenance. So, you can either rely on these systems being donated by the West or you can rebuild them on your own. This is taking place with Soviet technology so it just needs to take place with Western-donated technology, and this project is still in the early stages as we’re trying to put together the team of specialists, facilities, and locations in Ukraine, working with the Ukrainian government to make sure that this war effort could be sustained and Ukraine wins.
And one thing I would like to say is thank you to the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian Armed Forces for what they've done to defend freedom and Western, American, and Ukrainian values. I personally am appreciative. And I know our American people are appreciative, too. On my latest trip to Ukraine, very unexpectedly, I received an award from the Defense Ministry, the Badge of Honor. So once again, thank you to the Ukrainian people and Slava Ukraini!
Ievgen Matiushenko
Photos provided by Eugene Vindman