Ukrainian military diplomacy: art of impossible

The work of the leaders of Ukraine's diplomatic team in 2023 looks like this in digital terms: Since December last year, President Volodymyr Zelensky has made 14 foreign visits, during which he visited 34 countries, held almost 170 phone calls and about 260 international meetings.

Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba had 140 bilateral international meetings and 88 phone calls, and Ukrainian military diplomacy, he said, worked 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

"We have not always been diplomatic, probably, we have often acted unclassically and unexpectedly, even impatiently, but we have done things this year that seemed almost unattainable at the beginning of the year," the President said in a speech to diplomats on the day of their professional holiday.

Ukrinform, together with experts, analyzed the achievements of Ukrainian diplomacy this year and what tasks will be prioritized in 2024.

DECEMBER'S INTERIM VICTORY AFTER A DIFFICULT POLITICAL FALL

The President warned diplomats in early August at a meeting of ambassadors in Transcarpathia, which took place just over six months after the previous one in December, that they should prepare for a difficult political autumn.

"Now is the most important six months. In a month, a new political season begins in the partner countries. It should be as pro-Ukrainian as previous political seasons. There is time to prepare. We need decisions for the sake of Ukraine," Zelensky emphasized.

One of the main such decisions - to start negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU - was made by the leaders of European countries.

Zelensky called it the main political result of the year. According to him, "it was really difficult, and that's putting it mildly."

The President also listed other political and diplomatic results of the year. In particular, he called the main defense result the air shield of Ukraine, which is getting stronger every month, and the main strategic result - the promotion of the Ukrainian Peace Formula.

Zelensky also noted an important institutional result - Ukraine's rapprochement with NATO, which is manifested in the work of the NATO-Ukraine Council, and the creation of a new architecture of security guarantees within the framework of the Vilnius Declaration of the Group of Seven.

The President also emphasized the expansion of the geography of Ukraine's foreign policy. In particular, he said that this year the Ukrainian embassies in Ghana and Rwanda started working, and foreign states agreed to open diplomatic missions in Botswana, Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mauritania, Mozambique, and the Sultanate of Oman.

However, the plans for 2023 included opening new embassies in ten African countries and a Ukraine-Africa trade house with representative offices in the capitals of the most promising countries on the African continent, i.e., a total of 30 African countries.

But Ukraine is still moving forward on the African track by gradually expanding its representation on the continent and strengthening contacts: Zelensky had 34 meetings or phone conversations with African and Middle Eastern heads of state during the year, and Dmytro Kuleba had 47 such contacts by phone, during official visits and meetings at international events.

Commenting on the diplomatic results of 2023, former Foreign Minister and Director of the Center for Russian Studies Volodymyr Ohryzko said they were "more than positive."

"Of course, you can always want more, but let's take one example - the fact that the European Council summit decided to start negotiations with Ukraine on EU accession. This is not about technicalities - how many chapters are opened, how many thousands of documents or laws have to be reformatted to meet European legal standards. This is a political decision, that Ukraine is already part of the EU in the minds of our Western partners. And who else but Ukrainian diplomacy in the broadest sense - not only the Foreign Ministry staff, but also the President, the Verkhovna Rada, the Cabinet of Ministers, each specific agency, and the public - did all this work, which was successful. Until now, we have not had such results," he said in an interview with Ukrinform.

Political scientist Olesia Yakhno also believes that the best characteristic of Ukrainian diplomacy is its concrete results.

"Ukrainian diplomacy is involved in such important decisions and processes as the formation and maintenance of an international coalition in support of Ukraine, defense coalitions, the start of negotiations on bilateral guarantees with Western countries, the start of Ukraine's movement towards the EU, the abolition of EU quotas for many goods/services, the release of prisoners, the grain deal (before Russia's withdrawal), litigation in international courts, and others," she said in a commentary to Ukrinform.

In a conversation with Ukrinform, Yevhen Magda, director of the Institute of World Policy, called the diplomatic results of 2023 for Ukraine "dialectical."

He noted as a clear success the European Council's decision to start negotiations with Moldova and Ukraine on EU accession.

"This is a serious step towards European integration, which, however, will not be completed in the next 2-3 years. We need to talk about it frankly," the expert believes.

In his opinion, the NATO summit in Vilnius can also be considered an asset for Ukraine, "although not in the form that Kyiv wanted."

Magda also called Joseph Biden's visit to Kyiv a significant demonstration of US support, while noting that it was shaped by an "overseas agenda."

NEW/OLD TASKS FOR THE NEXT YEAR

Listing the common achievements in his speech to diplomats, the President noted that "all these are good results, but the best ones are ahead."

"The goals for the next year are very specific - we need more weapons, because no one is going to give up," Zelensky emphasized.

He also emphasized the need to develop a negotiation framework and begin full integration with the EU in all areas, to maximize the content of each defense coalition within the Ramstein format and in other formats, to constantly strengthen sanctions against Russia, and the importance of cooperation with partners to use frozen Russian assets for the benefit of Ukraine.

The President set another specific task for the entire foreign policy team - to find the key to the NATO decision for Ukraine.

"It is very difficult. All Ukraine's partners must realize that now is the time to join the strength of our state, our people, the strength of our soldiers, the strength of Ukraine's geopolitical importance to the common strength of the whole of Europe. Effective preparation for the Washington Summit is one of the key goals of 2024," he emphasized.

MISCALCULATIONS OR FORCE MAJEURE?

Of course, Ukrainian diplomats had not only victories this year. The President himself acknowledged that Russia has done a very serious diplomatic job and succeeded on the Middle East track. As a result, some states began to hesitate whether to help Ukraine or Israel.

However, Ihor Semyvolos, director of the Center for Middle East Studies, believes that it is difficult to talk about miscalculations of Ukrainian diplomacy.

"Diplomats act in real conditions, when circumstances are irresistible. It is not new that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is dividing the world. The war in Gaza has shown these contradictions very clearly," he said in a comment to Ukrinform.

According to the expert, Arab propagandists often compared these conflicts before the war in the Middle East and presented them as an example of double standards of Western countries, because under international law, the occupation of Ukrainian territories and the occupation of Palestinian territories have the same status. Russia also actively uses an anti-Western and especially anti-American meta-narrative and finds support from the Arab street, Semyvolos stated.

"Unfortunately, there is not much Ukraine can do in these circumstances. But even in such circumstances, it is necessary to adhere to the principles of international law and balance in relation to the Middle East conflict," the expert believes.

In his interview with Ukrinform, Yevhen Magda drew attention to the problems in relations with neighbors.

In his opinion, the results of the parliamentary elections in Slovakia and the return of Robert Fico, the predictable but no less unfortunate position of Viktor Orban, and the crisis in relations with Poland threaten Ukraine's position.

"This tension may actually constrain the initiatives of our diplomacy," he predicted.

At the same time, according to Volodymyr Ohryzko, modern Ukrainian diplomats are no less heroes than our soldiers at the front.

"Without their help, the anti-Russian anti-Putin coalition would not have been formed, our heroic Armed Forces would not have had the weapons they are using today to defeat the enemy, and without the work of Ukrainian diplomats, there would not have been a much better understanding in Western capitals that Russia is an evil that must be fought. Therefore, it seems to me that it is unprofessional to pull out some individual facts and draw general conclusions from them," the former minister said.

Another painful issue that Ukraine is facing in 2024 is the problem of obtaining military and financial support from its partners, including the United States.

For example, while last year we were told by the US at the end of the year that Ukraine would receive a new batch of military aid from the US Department of Defense worth USD 850 million, this year the Pentagon said that funds for military aid to Ukraine would run out on December 30 if Congress does not approve new funding.

Is this the fault of Ukrainian diplomats? Experts interviewed by Ukrinform believe that the reason is more likely the protracted nature of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

"Recently, we have seen that it has become somewhat more difficult to receive additional military and financial assistance. I think this is more likely one of the consequences of a war that is extended in time, when internal political situations, in particular those related to elections, appear in some countries, as well as new/old conflicts in different regions," political scientist Olesia Yakhno told Ukrinform.

Yevhen Magda also does not see this as a failure of Ukrainian diplomats.

"Rather, the issue is that the prolonged nature of the Russian-Ukrainian war creates a demand for internal changes in Ukraine, effective parliamentary diplomacy, and more effective use of the media," the expert believes.

And Volodymyr Ohryzko emphasized that there is no reduction in military support, but a delay in its provision to Ukraine.

"But this delay will be overcome in mid-January next year, in a few weeks, and I think Ukraine will receive everything it needs from both the US and the EU. Therefore, I think there is not even a hint of any problem with Ukraine's foreign policy or diplomacy. This is about internal political processes in the United States, of which we are, unfortunately, a hostage today," he said.

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After a difficult political fall, Ukraine is entering an equally difficult year with many new external challenges.

How to cope with them? Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba gave diplomats advice on the example of reaching a decision to start negotiations on EU accession:

"And I remind everyone once again: if someone ever tells you that it will not happen, it is impossible, Ukraine will never get it, just smile, turn around, walk away from these people and never listen to them again."

Nadiia Yurchenko, Kyiv

The first photo: AP