Explaining complex things in simple words: U.S. support for Ukraine, supplies of artillery rounds from EU, Ukraine’s lawsuit in UN court

AMERICAN SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE

The U.S. Senate has approved a bill on assistance for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, as well as the allocation of funds for the protection of the southern border of the United States. The Congress vote is scheduled for February 7.

▪ After several months of negotiations, the U.S. Senate proposed a compromise bill on additional funding, which also concerns Ukraine.

▪ We expect that this time the decision on U.S. assistance of USD 60.06 bln will be adopted.

▪ U.S. President Joe Biden called on Congress to vote on the bill without delay to immediately begin its implementation.

▪ Support for Ukraine is in the long-term national interest of the United States and should not depend on the political situation.

▪ It is better to stop the threat of authoritarian revanche now by supporting Ukraine than to save the whole world from it later.

SUPPLY OF ARTILLERY SHELLS FROM THE EU

In March 2023, the EU committed to supply 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine during the year to repel Russian aggression.

▪ After the beginning of the full-scale Russian aggression, Ukraine has set a course for a complete transition to shells of Western calibres of 155 mm and 120 mm because Soviet- style ammunition is running out.

▪ Artillery plays a decisive role in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Having a significant advantage in shells, Russia’s offensive provided for the use of the rolling barrage tactics.

▪ Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, acknowledged that with the current pace of ammunition deliveries, only 52% of the planned volume would be realized by March 2024.

▪ The European defence industry has sufficient capacity to fulfil the order, but many products are exported to third countries.

▪ J. Borrell notes that the best solution is to redirect products to Ukraine because it has the most urgent need. Manufacturers can negotiate with their customers to postpone orders.

UKRAINE'S LAWSUIT IN THE UN COURT

On February 2, the International Court of Justice recognized its jurisdiction to consider the 2022 lawsuit of Ukraine against the Russian Federation for violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.

▪ Russia officially justified its aggression against Ukraine “by the need to put an end to the genocide in the Donbas.”

▪ Accusations against Ukraine of “committing genocide” are completely unfounded. The Kremlin understands this, but deliberately spreads disinformation.

▪ Ukraine seeks to refute the Russian lie about genocide in the International Court of Justice, whose decisions are the most authoritative and binding for all countries.

▪ The UN International Court of Justice upheld the order on provisional measures of March 16, 2022, which obliges Russia to immediately suspend the hostilities launched on February 24, 2022, and stod any military or irregular units which the Russian Federation would direct or support.

▪ Before that, the International Court of Justice partially upheld the lawsuit of Ukraine against the Russian Federation in another case, recognizing Russia as a violator of international conventions for the suppression of the financing of terrorism and the elimination of all forms of racial discrimination.

Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security