Yuriy Shcherbak is a diplomat, former Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States, and one of the most respected experts in international relations. He is also a writer, author of very popular novels, which some have referred to as geopolitics in comics, others as political dystopia, where the plot directly concerns Ukraine and its eternal enemy. Ukrinform met with Yuriy a week before the full-scale invasion in February 2022.  He then prophetically said that Russia could attack from Belarus, trying to cut the Zhytomyr highway...

After some time, Yuriy Shcherbak moved to Poland, where he created the Ukrainian-Polish Information and Analytical Center "Independent Media Forum" and later wrote the book "Ukraine in the Embrace of Poland". This title sounds a bit strange today, doesn't it?

Our conversation with Yuriy is not only about Ukraine and Poland, but in general about what awaits us tomorrow and how we can resist and win.

IT SEEMED THAT A NEW FUTURE AWAITED US WITH POLAND: DARK PAGES FOR HISTORIANS, A COMMON ENEMY - MOSCOW, AND A COMMON DESTINY

- Yuriy, let's start with Poland. It seemed that against the backdrop of the crimes of our eternal common enemy, old grievances were forgotten. But it seems that Russia is managing to use its traditional methods - bribery and provocation. The result was not long in coming: this stinking yeast of both the 17th and 20th centuries seems to have been stirred up by the images of the Ukrainian-Polish wars... Will we be able to return to 2022, when Poland acted like a sincere and devoted sister?

- No, we will not be able to return there. In my opinion, there will not be such an atmosphere, such an impulse - romantic, emotional - there will not be. And even if it does, it will be no earlier than in half a century. We have again experienced the bitter pages of mutual accusations. Until recently, Polish farmers themselves were convinced, and some still are, that the problem is Ukrainian grain. Although Tusk has already explained that the problem is Russian grain, because Russia imports a lot of grain through Italy and Spain, which lowers prices on the European market. But this does not mean that our relations are spoiled to the level of the Cold War. Our relations with Poland at the beginning of the invasion were an incredible breakthrough. For the last two years, I have been closely involved with Poland. I am the chairman of the board of the Independent Ukrainian-Polish Media Forum analytical project. Our website has up to 400,000 views, and we cooperate with Polish journalists and analysts. We have published 400 articles by Polish media, participated in the Congress of the Free Polish Press, and are creating a field for dialogue. I was not in Poland as a refugee, I was invited by my wife's relatives. But I was a witness, I saw millions of refugees, women with children, overcrowded buses. I saw how they were received at the border, it was an amazing outpouring of love and compassion for Ukrainians. Ukrainian flags hung in Polish churches, and nuns took care of Ukrainian children. In Poznan, Wroclaw, Krakow, Lublin, Warsaw-everywhere we saw these manifestations of Polish compassion and wonderful attitudes toward Ukrainians. Sociological studies show that 77% of Polish citizens have helped Ukrainians to some extent.

Polish volunteers traveled to Lviv, picked up refugees and brought them to Poland. In short, this requires a special large book and scientific and journalistic research into what was happening in Poland at the time.

And let's recall the first Polish delegation that came to Kyiv in the spring of 2022, which included Prime Minister Morawiecki and the leader of the then ruling Law and Justice party, Jarosław Kaczynski. They sat in a bomb shelter with President Zelensky. And back then, Kaczynski said that we should raise the issue of bringing NATO troops into Ukraine.

The Poles have created logistics centers for our troops and equipment repair. I saw large American cargo planes with weapons and ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine landing in Rzeszow.

Poland has turned into a huge transportation hub for weapons supplies.  It immediately provided its Soviet-made fighter jets to Ukraine. It handed over high quality self-propelled guns and tanks. We must remember this.  While Western countries and the United States were solving issues, while there was bureaucratic red tape, Poland provided us with assistance immediately.

In 2022-2023, it seemed that all barriers had already been overcome, the difficult pages had been handed over to historians, the common enemy was Moscow, and we had a common destiny. Nations can move towards close integration step by step. Let us recall the terrible enmity between France and Germany after the First and Second World Wars, but they began to come closer together in the 1950s. They started with the Coal and Steel Community and from there they came to the creation of the European Union.

But the hope that we and the Poles had already forgotten everything old and turned over the page turned out to be an illusion.

Back in May of last year, the first alarm bells began to ring, and we on our website and I in my speeches and comments tried to draw attention to them. Unfortunately, the voice of analysts was not heard.

Do you remember the official visit of the President of Ukraine to Poland? There were good declarations, but it was during this period that these protests began. And the Minister of Agriculture of Poland resigned due to the surplus of Ukrainian grain. At that time, everyone had to come to their senses and sit down at the negotiating table, looking for compromises.

And there was little sign of the "Moscow hand" that is now ruling everything. Now the situation on the border has already turned into a special operation of hybrid warfare against both Poland and Ukraine. It is difficult to control or stop it. And, unfortunately, it seems to me that there will be no return to that romantic period of our common history when Poles were simply together with Ukrainians.

However, the main thing for us now is to keep Poland as a strategic ally in the fight against Russian aggression. We need to think about how to improve relations, and the Poles also understand this.

Tusk, for example, has called himself the most pro-Ukrainian politician in Europe, and Radislaw Sikorski, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, has made brilliant statements in support of Ukraine. And our Prime Minister emphasized that there was no disruption in the supply of military aid to Ukraine during these protests.

- Why are we categorically out of work, or what should we do to fix these relations?

- We should not deepen this conflict by threatening. Poles are a very proud people, very sensitive to situations where they are accused of something. We should not press on the historical calluses that we have "rubbed off" over the past almost 400 years.  When the Poles were shown the volume of Russian grain supplies to the European market, it changed their mood. Now, only 10% of Poles blame Ukraine, and 28% blame the European Union for imposing such rules...

- Yuriy, who better to ask than you, the former Ambassador of Ukraine to the United States: if Trump wins the US presidential election, will the "deep state", the intelligence community, as it was before Biden in 2016-2020, be able to restrain him from taking catastrophic steps?

- His victories in the primaries show that he may well win the election in November.

But the "deep state" will fight with all its might against Trump, who is now proclaimed in America, almost at the level of the White House, as an agent of Putin. I watched the latest briefing by representatives of the US intelligence community, and the pro-Ukrainian speeches were simply brilliant. They say that without helping Ukraine, America will lose all its strategic national interests. Now there is a new accusation against Trump that he was given bail money, USD 90 million, by a company connected to Russian special services. That is, he will not have a quiet life there.

However, disappointment with Biden is also spreading: more than 80% of voters believe that he is too old. [However, Trump is only 5 years younger, he is also in his 80s] America highly values leadership qualities, when a leader is active and leads the nation. Biden is not capable of this, he is very cautious, he hesitates, and this is evident in the example of providing assistance to Ukraine.

Unfortunately, there is opposition to Biden in his own Democratic Party. These are those who do not accept Biden's policy of supporting Israel. In America, there are many Democrats, possibly Muslims, who talk about "Israel's massacre in Gaza" ["forgetting" the terrible crimes of Hamas in southern Israel on October 7, 2023], accusing the Israelis of civilian casualties in Gaza.

As for Trump, I have no doubt that the road to the Republican nomination is open to him. And he will not stop. As we speak, there are primaries in 15 states, and I am very afraid that he will win. What are the alternatives? I really like Nikki Haley, a woman who was a representative to the UN, qualified in foreign policy.

She spoke out sharply against Trump, who appointed her, by the way, as a representative to the UN, she is charismatic, smart, beautiful, young. And she won the election in Washington, which is not such a significant victory. But she won against Trump. There is talk that she might join the independents who want to run a candidate.

- Nikki withdrew her candidacy from the election. Or do you have a different interpretation?

- She didn't end the campaign, she suspended it.  She "suspended" her participation. And there are hopes that she will be nominated as an independent candidate, and there she will have the support of both Republicans and independents, as well as Democrats.  If she becomes an independent third candidate, she will at least take a lot of votes away from Trump. We do not yet know how this completely unpredictable campaign will develop. But the Republicans are under Trump's full control, they are afraid of him, they do nothing without his permission. And this is the basis of all these delays in aid to Ukraine, this bill that Trump is preventing from being voted on by Speaker Mike Johnson.

EUROPE IS COMPARABLE IN ITS ECONOMIC POWER TO THE UNITED STATES AND IT WILL HELP US

- If Trump wins, will Ukraine and the EU be able to deter the Russian invasion, will Europe be able to maintain the level of sanctions and supply us with weapons?

- I think we can. Europe is not small; it is not inferior to the United States in terms of its total economic weight. Although it is not equal in terms of military power. Europe has lived in a cozy atmosphere of peace for decades. Neither the beer-loving German burgher nor the red-wine-preferring French bourgeois wanted to think about war, and they were happy with everything in the globalized world. And the fact that Germany now has only two combat-ready brigades, meaning that the Bundeswehr, with its German military traditions, is virtually worthless, looks like a bitter irony.

But there are signs that Europe has woken up after two years of war in its east. Yes, Europeans are afraid of a nuclear war and are doing everything to avoid a direct clash with Russia, but I think they will help.

- Europe is already preparing for war. The Baltic states do not rule out an invasion of their territory, and fences, bunkers, and military depots are being built on the border. Do you allow for such a scenario on the part of Russia?

- Absolutely. Poland also has these fears, and the Poles believe that a Russian offensive against them is possible this year. Poland shares a common border with Russia, and there is an aggressive enclave between Poland and Lithuania, the Kaliningrad region, where there are missiles that can be nuclear weapons. In addition, they also have the Belarusian border, which could lead to any kind of provocation. These could be, at first, hybrid attacks, not similar to those of regular troops, that is, there will be no tank attacks or artillery training, but simply some people crossing the border, provoking unrest...

- Let's talk about Emanuel Macron, the President of France. How realistic is his declaration to send NATO troops to Ukraine if necessary?

- All European analysts recognize, and I am also convinced, that this is a bid for leadership against the backdrop of Chancellor Scholz's hesitation. Scholz is in a much more complicated domestic political situation than Macron, he leads a coalition of three parties. And it can be difficult to reach an agreement with two, let alone three.

Instead, Macron decided to seize the initiative, because France has always been a separate force, and it has always opposed the United States, leaving the NATO military organization and then returning.

France has a nuclear deterrent and, unlike Germany, a much more capable army. No wonder there are rumors that the French military, some technical personnel, are already present in Ukraine.

We cannot verify this, but it is possible that President Macron has issued a "blueprint" that is being discussed in the general staffs of the EU countries, because they have seen what is happening in the United States and have begun to prepare for a "military" existence separate from the United States.  Figuratively speaking, the American aircraft carrier is sailing away from the shores of Europe, and the European aircraft carrier is now being hastily completed...

- Russia is not alone. It is joined by Iran and China, which is hiding behind North Korea. And the global South in general... Will the democratic world survive? In one of your books, there is a place where, as a result of a nuclear strike, the crazy Russian Empire collapses and buries the world under itself. In a book written ten years ago, you predicted a lot... And what is happening now?

- First of all, we must recognize that the term "axis of evil" used in the West when referring to Russia, China, Iran, and the DPRK is completely inadequate. In my opinion, this is a very dangerous geopolitical entity, which I would call not an "axis" but a "continent of evil." Just look at the map: Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea share common borders, they occupy a huge part of the Eurasian continent, and this is the "continent of evil." If it holds out, that is, if there are no internal turbulences in China, Iran, or Russia, then this "continent of evil" will be able to exchange resources and weapons within common borders. They act under the banner of the so-called Global South, positioning themselves as representatives of the interests of the "third world". Their policies are outside the scope of international concepts of law and order. Putin and Russia have destroyed everything that mankind has gained after World War II. They pose a huge danger to the Western liberal world. Today, no one can predict how the clash will end, although, of course, we hope that the camp of freedom and democracy, liberal values will prove its strength and rightness. But the United States may lose its world leadership, and Europe may remain confused and indecisive...

We are now in the midst of a very complex, tragic process of restructuring the world - the old world is broken, and it will not return.  The experience of the world wars, and indeed of great wars in general, shows that after them a lot changes - not only the pages of history textbooks become a thing of the past - a new world of new relations is born. And now, I repeat, we are in the epicenter of this process, and the old world has been completely destroyed, thanks to the bloody Russian aggression.

I would not like my predictions or prophecies to come true, as it was with our previous interview, Ms. Lana. Moreover, like you, I believe in "black swans". I am convinced that history is irrational, there is no direct linear plot from point A to point B. And there can be any unexpected events, and "black swans" can fly over the Kremlin, over Moscow, over Russia, and over that "continent of evil" I mentioned.

Lana Samokhvalova, Kyiv

Photos by Valentyn Kondratyuk, Anatoliy Serikov