Ukraine is Anticipating the Upcoming of a New Era for its Relations with Brazil

Brazil, which has until recently been associated primarily with carnival, football, coffee and TV shows, is currently confidently claiming a more prominent role in global politics.

The largest country in South America, Brazil ranks ninth in the world in terms of nominal GDP and gold and currency reserves. That country, with its rich and potent agricultural sector and huge deposits of various ores, minerals and uranium, can potentially evolve into South America’s largest economy.

There have been periods of rapprochement and estrangement in relations between Ukraine and Brazil, and now, as the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak put it, "we are standing at a crossroads where our two countries can start a new era of relations."

WHY BRAZIL IS IMPORTANT TO US

Ukraine is willing to initiate a new era in relations, or, rather, reset them anew, with each and every country in Latin America.

To this end, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs at the beginning of the year introduced the first ever Strategy for the Development of Relations between Ukraine and the countries in South America and the Caribbean.

It’s only reasonable that Brazil, being among the largest and most influential regional economies, should, as foreseen by the Ukrainian diplomatic corps play a prominent role in this effort and provide a lead for others to follow.

“Other states of the region will certainly be watching Brazil, and this is what we account for. Our dialogue with that country is therefore carefully balanced, but we are explicitly stating to our Brazilian partners that we want Brazil to play a more active role and take part in processes relating to Ukraine," Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Iryna Borovets told Ukrinform in an interview.

“What’s important to Ukraine with respect to Latin America, is, at least, our return to regional markets that we held but lost during the past decades”, says Natalia Shevchenko, director of the Latin America and the Caribbean program of the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism", Cand. Sc. (History) Ph.D, associate professor at Kyiv National Taras Shevchenko University.

Mrs Shevchenko further deliberates on Ukraine’s expectations regarding Brazil: “Brazil, a vibrant economy, could potentially become an investor in rebuilding projects in Ukraine. On top of that, it’s a country with the potential to eventually evolve into a global leader. Brazil also seeks a more prominent role within the UN; it advocates a UN Security Council reform and could potentially become its new member."

At the same time, she describes the current relations with Brazil as restrained, and that’s despite the fact that Ukraine, for its part, has been demonstrating its intentions to get the right content for these relations.  

ASYMMETRIC RAPPROCHEMENT

Certain expectations with regard to intensifying these relations arose after the First Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Economy of Ukraine, Yulia Svyridenko in early 2023 made a working trip to Brazil to attend inauguration ceremony for the then newly elected President, Lula da Silva. Then the Ukrainian government official had a meeting with Mr Silva, where she introduced the Ukrainian Peace Formula, discussed intensification and development of bilateral economic cooperation as well as Brazil’s potential involvement in rebuilding Ukraine.

But now, more than a year after Mr Lula took office, Brazil has failed to demonstrate more support for Ukraine in the international arena, and President Lula’s "peace initiatives" he has proposed over that time met with sharp responses not only from Ukraine, but also from the global democratic community.

Special Envoy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to South America, Ruslan Spirin, in a comment to Ukrinform, highlighted the fact that Brazil is known for its traditionally neutral stance on military conflicts unless they are taking place in Latin America. For this reason, the country’s reaction to Russian invasion of Ukraine was cautious, especially given that Brazil has serious economic interests in Russia, in particular in its energy sector.

"That country is seeking to maintain a due balance in its international trade activity and diplomatic relations, avoiding negative responses from Russia, considering their mutually beneficial economic ties. This situation, while making Ukraine concerned, opens the door for diplomatic initiatives and negotiations," Mr Sprinin says.

According to the Foreign Ministry’s special envoy, the prime obstacle standing on the way of closer relations between Ukraine and Brazil  is a different vision of international politics regarding, in particular, the methods for settling international conflicts and the role of international sanctions.

"While Ukraine is calling for an aggressive use of sanctions power to deter Russia’s aggressive actions, Brazil, for its part, is pushing for a more balanced approach, seeking to avoid actions that could isolate Russia even further," he said.

Natalia Shevchenko agrees that the problem doesn’t arise from Ukraine; issues on a multiplicity of levels, particularly on the personal level of president Lula arise from the Brazilian part.

According to the analyst, the Brazilian leader is clearly aware of who is the aggressor and who is the victim. He failed to become a global actor as a mediator in the Russo-Ukrainian war and by so doing to bring Brazil back to the international arena, and this affects his attitude towards Ukraine. In addition, Lula is, to a degree, jealous about the fact that a lot of countries are committing significant resources to helping Ukraine and giving our country a considerable amount of attention during bilateral and international gatherings. This is where the Brazilian president's statements that "the world has become tired of Ukraine" come from.

ISSUES OF COMMON CONCERN AND COMMON INTEREST

Ruslan Spirin argues that a foundation for a rapprochement with Brazil on political issues could be laid through a broader and more intensive economic collaboration.

 This was among the issues discussed during a recent video conference between the First Deputy Prime Minister - the Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Svirydenko and Vice President, Minister for Development, Industry, Trade, and Services of Brazil Geraldo José Rodrigues Alckmin Filho.

"Sustained economic growth, even in conditions of war with the Russian Federation, along with Ukraine's status as a candidate country for EU membership, opens up broad opportunities for international investors seeking to enter European markets. We have arranged that our governments will intensify effort towards expanded, mutually beneficial economic cooperation and will work on increasing trade between Ukraine and Brazil. We have similar views on the range of products, trade in which should be increased," said Svirydenko.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during a recent interview with Brazilian media outlets, offered similar arguments in favor of economic cooperation with Ukraine as a EU candidate country.

"Ukraine will certainly become member of the EU and, with its influential voice in the European Union, become one of the most important economies on the European continent. It’s my belief that, in the future - I am not talking about 10-20-30 years, but about the coming years - the European Union will be for Brazil a much more valued partner (than Russia)... Diversification is the right choice... And changing (economic) relations, with, say, Ukraine and with the EU as a whole... for the Russian economy ... will be a mistake," the Ukrainian President said.

The European Union can also indirectly be a lobbyist for Ukraine’s political and economic interests in Brazil, Natalia Shevchenko notes.

In this context, the expert reminded that the European Union has a special program for Latin America and the Caribbean, known the EU Global Gateway, which entitles for EU investment funds the countries of the region who respect the human rights and condemn Russia's violation of the territorial integrity of Ukraine.

"The examples of Chile and Uruguay, who have received investment money under this program, can be demonstrative for Brazil; if you aim to increase economic cooperation with the EU, you are welcome, but the way to this lies through the support of democracy across the world and the condemnation of aggression," she said.

Iryna Borovets argues that Ukraine has much to offer Latin American countries, especially Brazil.

"We cannot invest in that region right now, but they can put to use our technical, technological and intellectual capital... We can offer design work, services in the construction of industrial facilities and infrastructure, digitalization, IT technologies, creative industries, along with what we’ve never offered previously, for example, innovative solutions in the fields of conservation, land reclamation, thrifty use of water resources, etc.," she said.

In addition to cooperation at the global level, experts also mention less obvious, at first glance, but potentially interesting areas for Brazil, such as the Ukrainian reform of school meals (a program being implemented under the patronage of First Lady Olena Zelenska), the experience in overcoming gender inequality, and combating domestic violence. These topics were given special emphasis among other social issues in President Lula's 2023 election program.

GLOBAL HOPES FOR PEACE SUMMIT

The First Global Peace Summit, set to take place in Switzerland in June, could potentially provide a platform for rapprochement with Brazil.

President Zelensky, speaking in a recent interview with Brazilian media, emphasized once again that Ukraine is wishing that Brazil, and President Lula da Silva in particular, take a highly visible part in that forum.

"I believe that his (the President of Brazil - ed.) attendance there, as of any of the leaders of any country in the world who would be invited, would suggest that they, those people, want peace, preferably a just peace for Ukraine," Zelensky said.

Unfortunately, the list of attendees for that international forum of crucial importance for Ukraine is yet unknown.

Nataliya Shevchenko isn’t much optimistic that President Lula will show up at the Peace Summit, and less so as Brazil was recently weighing the possibility of inviting Putin to attend the upcoming 2024 G20 Rio de Janeiro Summit.

She believes that Lula, being a cautious politician, will sit and wait to see how the situation will unfold, (because, as she put it, this will be the first but definitely not the last summit"), and also to see who wins the 2024 US presidential election. He will maneuver, citing various circumstances that prevented him from attending the Global Peace Summit, as he had done in the past with respect to other international gatherings.

Commenting on the fact that the President of Brazil last year decided, in response to an invitation to visit Ukraine, to send to Kyiv his special aide for international affairs, Celso Amorim instead of himself, Mrs Shevchenko noted that this can potentially become a new format in Ukraine-Brazil relations, adding that this can be frustraiting and encouraging at the same time.

"This kind of very delicate level of non-public diplomacy can pose a danger to us in the sense that official relations with Ukraine can simply be "bracketed"; like some communication  seems to continue, albeit with not much success, and Amorim is not obliged to let people know what is happening. But looking at the situation from a more optimistic perspective, one can suggest that for the political elites of some countries in Latin America, this informal level of communication is probably more acceptable, given that they are reluctant, for various reasons, to frankly speak about support for Ukraine amid Russian invasion, including due to the presence of business contacts that Brazilian businesses keep with Russia with a great effect for themselves”, says the director of the Latin American and Caribbean program, the “Ukrainian Prism”.

It should be added in this context that the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak and Celso Amorim continue to maintain contacts; during a telephone conversation in March, they discussed preparations for the First Global Peace Summit set to take place in Switzerland.

As the preparations for the Global Peace Summit are in full swing, Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is arranging for a Latin American tour for Minister Dmytro Kuleba.

In addition, Ukraine and partners are setting and agreeing dates for a Latin American tour by a Ukrainian delegation to be led by First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svirydenko. This as expected will signal a start for a broad, high-level dialogue on issues of policies, economy, and investments.

...As Ukrainian diplomats say, "if you were told no, it means not today." New opportunities may arise tomorrow, including with respect to Brazil.

Nadia Yurchenko, Kyiv

Headline photo: Getty Images