Orban in Kyiv. Why and with what did he come?

On July 2, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Kyiv, for the first time in 12 years and since start of Russian invasion.

Without elaborating into details, on the second day of the visit, the things we want to know most are why he came, what he came with, and what he came away with. But about that later. First, briefly, about the background of this visit, or rather, what preceded it:

Eleven demands concerning ethnic minorities, which Orban put forward as a compensation for his agreement not to obstruct the start of negotiations on Ukraine's EU accession. Half of the demands address Hungarian-language education, particularly, ensuring education in Hungarian throughout the entire educational process, the possibility of obtaining a Hungarian translation of the External Independent Evaluation and the National Multisubject Test, the introduction of the status of an "ethnic community’s comprehensive educational institution", etc. The list additionally contains demands regarding territories where Ukrainian Hungarians have lived historically, particularly automatically recognising all settlements in Ukraine’s Zakarpattia region as "traditionally Hungarian", even those where Hungarians have never lived historically. Another part of the demands concern quotas for political representation of ethnic minorities, particularly in the Ukrainian Parliament.

In May, Orbán expressed his support for China's "peace plan" and, earlier, he supported Donald Trump’s vow to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours if he’s elected.

On July 1, Hungary took over six-month rotating presidency of the EU council of ministers. Just for the record, Orban choosed a reworked version of Donald Trump’s slogan for his country’s upcoming EU presidency: Make Europe Great Again. This has already caused concern among the EU. Furthermore to this, Orban announced an alliance with populist parties from Austria and the Czech Republic, dubbed Patriots for Europe, and the intention to form a new far-right group in the European Parliament. Orbán believes this new right-wing faction to "soon become the strongest right-wing group in European politics”.

Now let's get back to where we started.

WHY DID ORBAN COME TO UKRAINE?

Volodymyr Fesenko, Chairman of the Board of the “Penta” Center for Applied Political Studies said, in a comment to Ukrinform, that this visit was in the nature of a political gesture by Orban - a demonstration of warming relations with Ukraine. This is connected, first and foremost, with the start of the Hungarian presidency of the EU Council.

"With this visit, Orbán signals that Ukraine will be among foreign policy priorities of both the European Union and Hungary. At the same time, he has demonstrated his constructiveness. Secondly, Orban seeks a part in forming a populist, right-wing party bloc in the European Parliament and in portfolio distribution in the European Commission. To achieve this, he needs an alliance with the head of the Italian government, Mrs. Meloni. According to sources familiar with the matter, Giorgia Meloni strongly demanded in response that Orban demonstrate constructiveness in relations with Ukraine generally and President Zelensky specifically. What ultimately happened at the EU summit at the end of June was Orban's conversation with Zelensky, followed by his visit to Kyiv," the political analyst says.

In general, Orban did not come to Kyiv with anything special, except for his ambiguous peace proposals (see below), and he did not go away from Kyiv with anything special.

"For the future, the most significant result of this visit is the start of negotiations on a major bilateral intergovernmental agreement. It is important for Ukraine, at least for a certain time period, to relieve tension in relations with Hungary, especially in the context of Ukraine’s European integration," Volodymyr Fesenko added.

According to political analyst Ihor Reiterovych, there were two reasons behind this visit by Orban. First is Hungary’s current presidency of the EU Council, and it is important for Orbán that his country’s presidency is starting on a positive note.

"He wants to demonstrate to other European countries that he is not that toxic as he is often perceived. Orbán has drawn much criticism from among European leaders, and some even expressed doubts in relation to Hungary's presidency. Therefore, he seeks to show himself open to compromises and ready to support Ukraine in order to reduce the tension surrounding his personality in the EU. After all, this visit is more of an image for Orban himself," says Mr. Reiterovych.

Second reason has a purely utilitarian nature: the protection of the rights of the Hungarian minority.

"Orbán needs a small victory, because the internal situation in his own country is not too much favorable for him. Let's be honest, the party he leads has actually lost European Parliament elections, winning fewer seats than in previous years. Orban was unable to form a major right-wing coalition and is now trying to prove to his core supporters that he is successful at least in protecting the rights of ethnic Hungarians residing outside of the country. Just note that the Hungarians have opened the first ever Ukrainian school, mostly for our refugees. But this is more of a symbolic step, because many European countries did so back in 2022. In the end, Kyiv and Budapest will agree on some matters, but on the most disputed ones, the Hungarians will back down - they will remove them from the agenda. As a result, Orbán will say that, you see, I did a great job as always, protected the interests of the Hungarians. And this will suit his core electorate; he has been speculating on this matter for years and continues speculating now," Ihor Reiterovych emphasized.

"CEASEFIRE": WHAT IS BEHIND THE HUNGARIAN PRIME MINISTER'S PROPOSAL OR WHOSE VISION HAS HE VOICED?

While Orbán was in Kyiv, offering Zelensky a "ceasefire" as a precondition for the start of negotiations with the Russian Federation, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto had a phone conversation with [Russian Foreign Minister] Lavrov. But the highlight remains on Orban's proposal, to which the US administration immediately responded: "We and NATO clearly stated that there is really only one solution here: the Russian Federation should simply withdraw from the territory of Ukraine."

Following are experts’ comments on this.

Szijjártó's conversation with Lavrov at the time Orbán was in Kyiv once again revealed both the duality of Hungary's foreign policy (maintaining special relations with Russia, contrary to the EU's shared vision, but without going far away from the EU's common policy towards Ukraine and Russia), and Budapest's claim for the role of a mediator in future peace negotiations on the end to the war," Volodymyr Fesenko believes.

Ihor Reiterovych echoed the previous comment, saying: "The fact that Szijjarto called Lavrov during Orban's visit to Ukraine is a demonstrative step. In my opinion, the Hungarians did so in order to underscore their multi-vector nature. They are kind of signaling to Russia: we take into account your interests, too. This is a win-win style diplomacy."

Regarding Orban's "peace proposal"... According to Volodymyr Fesenko, it is not for Russia, but for his own self-promotion and for the benefit of Trump.

"Russia does conduct negotiations amid war, exerting military pressure on the opponent. This was the case with us in 2014 and 2015, when Minsk agreements were negotiated. Therefore, the proposal that there should be a cease-fire first, then peace negotiations, goes contrary to Putin's style. Putin does not want a freeze on the war, but a peace agreement on the terms of unilateral concessions by Ukraine. Trump's team, at least some of his advisers, are supporting a freeze on the war in Ukraine," Mr Fesenko says.

Ihor Reiterovich, as well, believes that Orban's proposals are not only coming from the Russian Federation, but from Trump, too: "I do not think that Orban is Putin's emissary. His recent statements are more in line with China's "peace plan" than with Russian interests. Why is it dissonant with or irrelevant to Russia’s stance? Because the two latest statements by Lavrov and [Putin’s spokesman] Peskov were about something else. They said that, even if they sit down at the negotiating table, they are not going to put an end to the war; that’s to say, there can be no truce or ceasefire until a concrete agreement is signed."

According to the political analyst, the US response clearly shows that Washington understands the flaws enshrined in China-promoted "peace plan".

Reiterovych says, "I wonder what will happen if, say, Trump wins presidency and says that the Chinese plan is complete bullshit. How will Orbán, who is almost in love with Trump, respond to this?"

Well, Orbán is no stranger to being adaptable, he will come up with something...

"Orbán seeks to earn political dividends with Beijing as well. This statement actually cost him nothing, but he has crossed another checkmark in his list of done tasks. No one is going to discuss a "Chinese peace plan", because China has not explained exactly what it means by "respect for territorial integrity and state sovereignty in line with the UN Charter." This is the key point. If they mean general principles, then Russia should fully withdraw from the territory of Ukraine. If they talk about the current situation, it goes contrary to the principles of the UN Charter," the expert emphasized.

Currently, China is not ready to meaningfully consider this, because its vision is yet to be fully shaped.

"The upcoming meeting of the Shanghai Organization for Cooperation (SOC) is not an alternative to the peace summit in Switzerland, because China does not have a position which is clearly formulated. The proposal "let's sit down and agree on something" does not work, because this would mean China should act as a guarantor of the truce and the beginning of agreements’ implementation, but at the moment it is not ready to take on such a role," added Ihor Reiterovych.

Renowned Ukrainian Journalist, political commentator, and author Vitaly Portnikov comments: "If you look carefully at the purpose of the Hungarian Prime Minister's visit to the Ukrainian capital, the main content of this visit is the pretty cautious proposal made by the Hungarian Prime Minister to cease fire on the line of contact between Russian and Ukrainian troops. Until now, no one has officially stated in the presence of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi, who did not respond to this proposal by the Hungarian Prime Minister, that a ceasefire is the most realistic scenario of an end to the Russo-Ukrainian war. Some observers believe that Orbán’s offer is echoing a Russian narrative. The Kremlin, however, rushed to distance itself from the Hungarian Prime Minister’s visit, emphasizing that they are not expecting any tangible changes to take place following his trip to Kyiv. And this is obvious enough, given that Russia’s vision of ​​a ceasefire does not at all suggest a true ceasefire at the line of contact."

Portnikov reminded that, as a precondition for peace negotiations with Ukraine, Putin insists that Ukraine should withdraw its troops beyond the boundaries of all the Ukrainian Oblasts the Russian Federation has annexed formally. These are the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, in addition to the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. Part of the areas in each of these Oblasts are controlled by Ukrainian troops, who even managed to retake Kherson from Russian occupation.

"So Orban's proposal, by and large, doesn’t correspond to that of Russia, but more to the Chinese vision of how the war Russo-Ukrainian war can be stopped or suspended. Thus, it can be assumed that the Hungarian Prime Minister, during his stay in the Ukrainian capital, aimed to show loyalty not to Brussels, Washington (he generally expects a victory for Donald Trump, and only after that happens will he develop relations between Hungary and the USA), nor to Moscow, but to Beijing," Mr. Portnikov believes.

RIGHT-WING CONSOLIDATION AND HUNGARY’S PRESIDENCY IN THE EU COUNCIL: WHAT TO EXPECT FROM IT?

Viktor Orban, Herbert Kickl, the far-right Austrian Freedom Party leader, and Andrej Babis, a former Czech Prime Minister announced the creation of a new right-wing group in the European Parliament. Politicians drew up a "patriotic manifesto for the future of Europe", where they declared that the European Union "has turned against Europeans and now pursues interests contrary to the will of nations, regions and small communities".

Andreas Umland,  a German political science and history authority and analyst at the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies, believes that it’s obvious even now that this group is going to be pretty isolated and will probably often vote against Ukraine and in Russia’s favor.

"But I don't think that this will change the overall pro-Ukrainian orientation of the European Parliament," he claims.

The right-wing bloc has grown stronger now, and that's somewhat of a problem.

"But as long as the centrist factions dominate, the votes will continue to be in favor of Ukraine. All the more so because, among the right-wing populists, there are also those who support Ukraine. A highly illustrative example of this is Giorgia Maloni's party in Italy," Mr. Umland points out.

He says that Orbán's group, which at best can number several dozen deputies, has already been jokingly christened as "Putin's patriots."

"They can try and block military and financial support for Ukraine, the possibility of Ukrainian joining the European Union, a condemnation of Russia's actions, a number of legislative procedures, etc. It is interesting to note that this alliance doesn’t include the German "Alternative for Germany" party. And this actually amounts to a crushing blow to the Right Wings in the European Parliament. It is another matter if, over time, the newly created right wing bloc of parties will be reinforces by the entry of other parties and grow into something significant for the general orientation of European Parliament’s decisions. But much will depend on how the Right Wing flank will develop, which of the factions many independent deputies will join. One way or another, Russia will be seeking to exploit the right-wing parties in the European Parliament as a platform to voice its views," Andreas Umland says.

Volodymyr Fesenko has a different vision: "Orban is unlikely to be able to create his led faction in the European Parliament. A faction in the European Parliament is required to include deputies from at least seven countries. Deputies from four countries do not suffice this requirement. The right-wing populist bloc is not the only one. Meloni and her party, for example, support Ukraine and condemn the Russian invasion. Marie Le Pen's party as well has condemned Russia's actions, while maintaining a certain degree of neutrality. Her party also refused to cooperate with Alternative for Germany, which openly supports Putin. Meloni is trying to create a right-wing populist faction in the European Parliament. If she succeeds in this, it will mitigate the risks facing Ukraine."

Ihor Reiterovych, for his part, notes that the far-right group in the European Parliament is heterogeneous, which will make it difficult for them to come to terms among themselves.

"They will be able to make loud statements on certain issues, but will Putin be able to use them as a mouthpiece? I doubt that Putin will be able to exploit Giorgia Maloni, for example. Even those who are openly pro-Russian are now very cautious about commenting on everything related to Russia, because this doesn’t find support with the majority of citizens in European countries. Putin, acting through his satellites, will definitely try and create some sort of dissonance, but this influence is not going to be as effective as the Russian Federation expects."

Regarding Hungary’s presidency of the EU Council , Mr. Reiterovych is convinced: we should not, as the youth say, "sweat" about this matter.

First, Hungary has no effective mechanisms to complicate our path to European integration during its presidency.

Second, meaningful negotiations are set to begin in January.

"The European Union should compile relevant teams for these negotiations, but this process will be delayed due to the elections and the formation of the leadership of the European Commission. Ukraine, for its part, should set up its own negotiating teams to work on each of the 33 provisions. In other words, this is going to be a bureaucratic process that will not begin until after the New Year, during the Polish presidency," Mr. Reiterovich points out.

The analyst’s assessment of Orban's visit to Ukraine is in general positive.

"Why? Because concrete agreements have been reached, and leader-to-leader meetings are vital for resolving controversial issues. It must be appreciated that the Hungarians can change their stance in the process, but this visit definitely helped remove some of the thorny issues in relations between our countries.

Orban needed this visit more than Zelensky, and Kyiv should make the most of this situation. I hope that the negotiations in Kyiv achieved the maximum they could, and it won’t be long before we hear the good news that the eleven demands no longer exist, but there are agreed provisions that do not run counter to the national interests of Ukraine," Ihor Reiterovych summed up.

Myroslav Liskovych. Kyiv