"De Oppresso Liber": What Trump's national security advisor pick means for Ukraine

Last week I was honored to speak at the Kyiv Economic Forum about the U.S. elections, after President Trump had won. As we all know, U.S. support is critical for the future of Ukraine to defeat Russia and many in Kyiv are concerned whether this assistance would remain in place. Prior to the election, considerable uncertainty was about to who would be president. Now that this uncertainty has ended, there is now more uncertainty as to how Donald Trump and his administration will lead in relation to Ukraine. I suggested to the audience at the Forum and wrote in a column for Ukrinform to watch the four most important Trump appointees to help determine the future U.S. support. The four positions are the National Security Advisor (in the Biden administration it’s Jake Sullivan), the Secretary of Defense (currently Secretary Lloyd Austin), Secretary of State (currently Antony Blinken), and CIA Director (Currently Bill Burns). I spoke at length about the most important, in my opinion, of these four key positions with regards to Ukraine. And that’s the National Security Advisor. 

This week the appointments have been announced but, again, there’s uncertainty as to what they will do once they are in the role on January 20. CIA Director will be John Ratcliffe, the former Director of National Intelligence during Donald Trump’s previous term. The Secretary of State will be Marco Rubio, a Senator from Florida. The Secretary of Defense will be Pete Hegseth. And the National Security Advisor will be Congressman Mike Waltz. All four are perceived as “hawks” against Russia, China, and Iran.

There are some clear differences between President Trump’s first term appointees and those picked for the second term.  The Trump team during his previous presidency included several very prominent personalities and retired general officers.  That didn’t go too well.  The clashes between generals Mattis, Kelly, Milley and McMaster vs. President Trump are well known and widely documented.  This cabinet will not be a ’team of rivals’. All these people are loyal to Donald Trump. Opponents raise concerns of a “dictatorship” buildup because everyone on the team firmly sticks to a general line, which poses a risk of a rigid “group think”. Supporters say this is a natural development of an overwhelming election win and a mandate to implement President Trump’s vision. Regardless, we all await the reveal of President Trump’s policies, but they might not be announced until he takes office on January 20, 2025. 

It is also important to note that after the election, both House and Senate are now firmly in control of the Republican Party. Under Trump, the Republicans will control the Presidency, the House, and the Senate.  What this means is that they control the agenda, the bills that go forward, and the amount of funding for all major subjects including Ukraine. That puts even more power in the President’s hands than normal wherever competing interests might arise within Congress. 

For Ukraine there were three options with the new administration, and the first two were Bad to Worse.

1.  Do more of the same (Bad)

2.  Do less of the same (Worse)

3.  Do more of something different (Best). 

President Trump now has incredible authority, more so than normal such as when a divided Congress held up the Supplemental for six months that expectedly turned out really damaging to Ukraine. Now is the time for him to wield incredible power to achieve the best interests of the United States National Security objectives.

It is inconceivable that President Trump will abandon Ukraine.  This is not “another Afghanistan”. NATO is firmly and unanimously behind Ukraine, too.  The United States House and Senate are 80% behind Ukraine.  By abandoning Ukraine, would lose the support of the majority in Congress that he needs to pass his domestic agenda. Notwithstanding it goes against 100 years of American international leadership to support freedom-loving people. 

With regards to President Trump saying he could solve the war in “one day”, while that seems infeasible it is his intent, he has tremendous powers that have not been utilized by the United States against Russia in economic, political, and military terms. He has been President before and he knows the enormous powers at his disposal. Ukraine should see Trump having so much power with both houses of Congress as a tremendous strength in their country’s favor.

The historical parallel would be the worst international crisis in the past 50 years for the United States – the Iranian hostage crisis that started November 3, 1979, and lasted until Ronald Reagan’s inauguration on January 20, 1981. Twenty minutes after Reagan was sworn in, the hostages were released from Iran, and an aircraft lifted off the Tehran Airport with 52 previously held hostages. Reagan is credited by his supporters as having solved a 444-day hostage crisis on his first day in office. So the precedent has been set to solve a major international crisis on Inaugural Day with a new administration taking over the White House. Reagan’s supporters claim the Iranians were terrified of the incoming president and released those people out of fear. The supporters of outgoing President Jimmy Carter, on the other hand, claimed that the Iranians merely held the hostages until Carter was out of office, and would have let them go no matter who was the new president. But the precedent was set anyway. President Trump was 34 years old on that day, and remembers those dramatic developments well. 

Many Ukrainians are currently oppressed in occupied territories. I believe the Trump administration will make it a priority to liberate the oppressed and it comes down to the character of the new National Security Advisor, Colonel Mike Waltz.

December 2022: Rice, Chairman McCaul, General Milley, Representative Waltz, and former Attorney General Barr, discussing the need for cluster munitions for Ukraine.

Many have written about his background as a three-term Member of Congress, former U.S. Army Special Forces (Green Beret), generally referring to him as a hawk. But very few have mentioned Waltz’s values and those of the organization (U.S. Special Forces) that he represents in Congress. He is not only an SF officer, he is the first one in history to become a Member of Congress. The U.S. Army Special Forces is the most highly trained of the Special Operations soldiers that the United States has in the two million-strong military. All U.S. Army Special Forces (Green Berets) undergo an intense two-year training program. They all have to speak foreign languages because they are trained in unconventional warfare. Their motto is “De Oppresso Liber”, or “To Free the Oppressed”.

The 10th Group Special Forces, founded in 1952 and dedicated to defending Europe for 72 years, was pulled out of Ukraine just weeks prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion. These soldiers wanted to stay and fight alongside Ukraine Armed Forces. It was a political decision by the U.S. President’s team, most likely, as I understand, by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. 

There is much debate in Washington, DC and Brussels that the fear of escalation has led to the slow “drip- drip-drip” approvals of both weapons systems, aircraft, and ammunition for Ukraine. Even when the Department of Defense and Congress were unanimous on certain supplies, it is said that at the choke point stood Jake Sullivan. The latter has neither any military background nor training in weapons systems to make those judgments. Sullivan decides, not advises. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and former President Dmitry Medvedev have continued to threaten escalation, they have thus had the U.S. National Security Advisor hold back defense capabilities for Kyiv. Now, with Mike Waltz, the role of the National Security Advisor will be restored to “advising”, and President Trump will make all major decisions.

In my opinion, Ukraine should be very hopeful of the change. Former Special Forces officer Mike Waltz is not taking the job with the plan to abandon the oppressed Ukrainians in the temporarily occupied territories. I believe he is to promote “De Oppresso Liber” as per his nature and values. And I believe President Trump has a plan to bring all the resources of the United States to bear to end the war, by liberating Ukraine, and making NATO pay for the permanent international force along the new DMZ between the 1991 borders of Ukraine and Russia.

Dan Rice, President of American University Kyiv, graduate of U.S. Military Academy at West Point, and combat veteran

*Author's opinions do not necessarily reflect those of Ukrinform's editorial board