Permission to fire Western missiles into Russia causes no nuclear escalation - U.S. intel

Reuters reports this with reference to five sources familiar with U.S. intelligence data, Ukrinform saw.

A series of intelligence assessments over the past seven months have concluded that a nuclear escalation is unlikely to result from the decision to ease restrictions on Ukraine's use of American weapons. The assessment has not changed after outgoing President Joe Biden changed the U.S. stance on weapons for Ukraine this month, the sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

The assessment has been consistent that ATACMS will not change Russia’s nuclear posture, said one congressional aide familiar with U.S. intelligence, referring to U.S. missiles with ranges of up to 190 miles (306 km).

Russia’s launch of an experimental ballistic missile last week, which analysts said was intended to serve as a warning to Washington and its European allies, did not change that assessment.

One of five U.S. officials said Washington believes that, while Russia will not seek escalation involving its nuclear forces, Russia will seek to respond to what it sees as escalation from the United States. The launch of the experimental missile is part of that effort, one of the officials said.

U.S. officials said the intelligence helped guide an often contentious debate in the Biden administration in recent months about whether Washington should ease restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weapons, amid fears of escalation and uncertainty about Putin’s response. According to sources, Biden changed his mind because of North Korea’s engagement in the war ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

Some U.S. officials now believe that concerns about escalation, including nuclear fears, were exaggerated. Still, they emphasize that the overall situation in Ukraine remains dangerous, and that nuclear escalation is not ruled out.

Some officials believe the decision to expand the use of ATACMS was made too late.

Nevertheless, according to Reuters’ interlocutors, Russia is likely to launch a sabotage campaign against European targets to increase pressure on the West over its support for Kyiv.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, on November 17, The New York Times, citing sources, reported that US President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use long-range ATACMS missiles against targets deep inside Russian territory.

Later, the White House officially acknowledged that Biden had relaxed restrictions on Ukraine's use of longer-range American missiles against targets inside Russia.