Ukraine medium-range strike campaign neutralizes Russia numerical superiority - ISW
According to Ukrinform, this is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Institute’s experts drew attention to an article by the publication “Vazhnye Istorii,” which, citing data on Russia’s federal budget expenditures, reported that in the first quarter of 2026, 71,200 people received one-time enlistment bonuses after signing military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense, which is 20% fewer than a year earlier.
The publication also noted that 363,900 people signed contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry in 2025, a 10% decrease from 2024.
Russia is facing increasing difficulties in recruiting new conscripts amid rising casualties and is forced to call up reservists, increase bonuses, and expand covert mobilization efforts to overcome the recruitment shortfall, the report states.
ISW analysts noted that Russia continues to view its troop strength as its main advantage over Ukraine; however, Ukraine’s superiority in tactical drones across the entire theater of operations and its campaign of medium-range strikes have currently neutralized this advantage, inflicting disproportionately high losses in manpower and equipment on Russian forces.
“The Kremlin is creating conditions for a limited, phased mobilization of reservists to compensate for its losses in Ukraine amid declining recruitment rates and rising casualty numbers,” the Institute’s report states.
As reported by Ukrinform, on June 1, Andrii Yusov, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, stated that there is no sign of increased mobilization in Russia, but the public is being prepared for this in the information sphere.
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