UGA increases forecast of oilseeds, grains harvest in Ukraine to 76.8M t

According to Ukrinform, UGA reported this.

The increase in the forecast of this year's harvest is due to favorable weather conditions and better crop yields than expected, although the sown area is 2.2 million hectares less than last year.

UGA has improved its estimate of the wheat harvest in 2023 from 17.9 million tonnes to 20.2 million tonnes (20.2 million tonnes in 2022 and a record 33 million tonnes in 2021). The potential export of wheat in 2023/2024 marketing year (MY) may amount to about 15 million tonnes, considering that at the beginning of the season the carry-over stocks amounted to 4.3 million tonnes.

The estimates of barley harvest in 2023 also increased from 4.4 million tonnes to 5.2 million tonnes (10.1 million tonnes in 2021, and 5.8 million tonnes in 2022). The potential exports in 2023/2024 MY can be expected at 2.6 million tonnes.

Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season have improved slightly (from 24.2 million tonnes to 26.9 million tonnes) (37.6 million tonnes in 2021, 27.3 million tonnes in 2022). Exports may reach about 22 million tonnes.

The sunflower harvest in 2023 is also expected to be higher. The estimate increased from 12.7 million tonnes to 13.9 million tonnes (in 2021, 16.9 million tonnes; in 2022, 11.1 million tonnes). Potential exports could reach 1.1 million tonnes. Sunflower processing for oil may reach 12.5 million tonnes.

The rapeseed harvest in 2023 is preliminary estimated at 3.9 million tonnes. Exports in 2023/2024 MY are expected at 3.7 million tonnes.

The soybean harvest estimate increased from 4.4 million tonnes to 4.8 million tonnes. Potential exports in 2023/2024 MY could reach 3.3 million tonnes.

Under these conditions, exports from Ukraine in the new 2023/2024 season could potentially reach almost 48 million tonnes. Last season (ended June 30, 2023), according to UGA, exports reached 58 million tonnes. Ukraine's revenues from exports of grains, oilseeds, and oils in the last MY amounted to about USD 20 billion.

However, according to UGA, these export volumes of grains and oilseeds in the new 2023/2024 MY are achievable if Ukraine can ship products abroad through its Black Sea ports, as well as if the logistics of alternative routes, including the Danube route, are improved and cheaper.

As Ukrinform reported, in July 2023, UGA increased its estimate of the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine by 1 million tonnes to 69 million tonnes.