UGA lowers grain and oilseed harvest forecast to 71.8M due to heat

According to the association, another reduction in the projected harvest for the new season was prompted by the prevailing hot and dry conditions in Ukraine, which had a negative impact on the potential yield of late grains and oilseeds.

"The UGA estimates the wheat harvest at 19.8 million tonnes in 2024 (22 million tonnes in 2023). The potential export of wheat in 2024/2025 MY may amount to about 13 million tonnes, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season, the carry-over stocks amounted to almost 1 million tonnes," the report says.

According to the association, this year's barley harvest is expected to reach 4.95 million tonnes, with potential exports of 2 million tonnes in 2024/2025 MY.

Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season deteriorated due to the heat - by 2.1 million tonnes to 23.4 mln tonnes. At the same time, the potential exports could reach nearly 18.5 million tonnes.

The sunflower harvest is expected to reach 12.8 million tonnes against last year's 14.2 million tonnes. Potential exports could reach up to 250,000 tonnes, while sunflower processing for oil could reach 12.5 million tonnes.

The expected rapeseed harvest stands at 4.3 million tonnes, while exports in 2024/2025 MY may reach 3.4 mln tonnes.

The soybean yield is expected to reach 4.8 million tonnes, with exports accounting for 3.5 million tonnes.

Under these conditions, the total export of agricultural products of plant origin from Ukraine in the marketing season 2024/2025 may reach 41 million tonnes. Last season, 57.5 million tonnes of agricultural products and raw materials were exported.

As reported, Ukraine harvested 82.8 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds in 2023.